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Bitcoin (BTC) has stalled in the $80,000 to $82,000 range, with its price largely fluctuating within this band since last Wednesday. Although fund flows still point toward a potential breakout, macro risks—particularly inflation—suggest the market should remain cautious.
The United States will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. According to FactSet, the median forecast for April CPI growth is 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If accurate, this would be the largest CPI increase since January 2024 and significantly higher than the 2.7% average increase over the past 12 months.
Analysts are concerned that such a reading, particularly against the backdrop of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement that President Donald Trump has called “incredibly fragile” and still elevated oil prices, could trigger risk-off sentiment, potentially putting pressure on asset prices.
“The market is entering a highly sensitive period where geopolitical factors, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined,” said Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research at global trading broker FXTM. “High oil prices, uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, and key U.S. economic data could all intensify volatility in commodities, currencies, and global stock markets over the coming days.”
However, market reactions may also depend on the core CPI data, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Core CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% year-over-year from 2.6% in March.
It may also be that expectations of rising inflation have already been priced in by the market, which could be why the initial rally in the stock market has stalled.
In addition to inflation, another key development is XRP and Solana (SOL) approaching key supply zones. XRP briefly tested $1.50 today, having failed multiple times to break above this level since February. Similarly, SOL is once again nearing resistance around $97.
Institutional demand for these tokens is heating up. On Monday, the spot XRP ETF listed in the U.S. attracted $25.8 million in investor funds, marking the highest inflow since January 5. Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also continued to draw capital, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a $16.9 million outflow.
In traditional markets, WTI crude oil futures rose over 3%, while Nasdaq futures fell more than 0.7%, both indicating heightened market risk-off sentiment. Stay alert!