Foreign media commentary suggests that setbacks to U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory legislation and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes did not suppress the market; instead, they triggered a rebound. On September 21, Bitcoin rose to $86,000, reaching its highest level since January 28.
The article cites analyst John Gillen’s view that the market had already priced in the two negative factors, and once they materialized, the factors suppressing sentiment were removed.
Negative factors have already been reflected in the price.
The article states that the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike had already been fully priced in by prediction markets and interest rate expectations, so its official announcement did not trigger new selling. The same applies to the CLARITY Act's failure to advance: for several weeks prior, the associated uncertainty had been suppressing markets; once the outcome was clear, this pressure subsided.
Gillen further argued that the later direction of the bill has shifted toward protecting the banking system rather than directly supporting the crypto industry. Therefore, in his view, the bill’s setback may not be a bad thing, as it reduces industry concerns about unfavorable legislative frameworks.
Support from subsequent actions by the SEC
The article shifts the focus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's response. Gillen noted that, in the face of legislative stagnation in Congress, the SEC quickly stepped in with regulatory guidance to fill the void, allowing the industry to move forward without waiting for Congress to pass new legislation.
According to him, the SEC’s swift response has been positively received by the market and has provided clearer operational space for certain new products and services. The article suggests that such administrative guidance may be even more specific in practice than the stalled legislation.
Altcoins exhibit more pronounced volatility.
The article states that since a large-scale short covering in August, Bitcoin has generally maintained a sideways, slightly bullish trend, but more pronounced volatility has occurred in altcoins. Ethereum has broken above $2,700 and briefly touched $2,800, while Sui rose approximately 30% within 24 hours.
The article also notes that the market is not currently widely viewed as having entered an overheated phase. Bitcoin's rebound above the 50-week moving average is interpreted as returning above its average level over the past year. This rally appears more like a catch-up movement rather than a rapid expansion of a bubble.