Foreign media report that, ahead of the upcoming June meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, the crypto market has already shown signs of cooling liquidity. The article suggests that if the Bank of Japan continues to tighten policy while the Fed signals a more cautious stance, risk assets could face heightened volatility—particularly warranting close attention to pressure on the crypto market.
The Bank of Japan meeting takes center stage
The article notes that the U.S. dollar has strengthened against the Japanese yen for four consecutive weeks, once again approaching the 160 level. This indicates continued appreciation of the dollar relative to the yen, prompting renewed market attention to the pressures on Japan’s financial system and the resulting changes in global liquidity.
Meanwhile, Japan’s inflation data continues to rise. According to TradingEconomics, Japan’s CPI index increased to 113 in April, up from 112 in March. The article suggests this reduces the Bank of Japan’s room to keep interest rates unchanged, and market expectations for another rate hike are growing.
According to the article, the Bank of Japan will hold its meeting on June 15–16, and the market has already priced in a relatively high expectation of a 25-basis-point rate hike. The article also notes that since 2024, the crypto market has experienced notable pullbacks following several key rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Stablecoin funds flow out first
Before the policy meeting, on-chain funding conditions have already shown signs of weakness. The article states that stablecoins recorded cumulative outflows of over $3 billion this week, bringing their total market cap down to approximately $316 billion—near a two-month low and more than $6 billion below the recent peak of around $32.2 billion at the end of May.
- This week's stablecoin outflows: over $3 billion
- Total market capitalization of stablecoins: approximately $316 billion
- Down more than $6 billion from the late-May high
This data set is viewed by the article as a direct signal: the market is no longer channeling new funds into crypto assets, and some capital is instead being withdrawn. For risk assets that rely on liquidity, this typically means increased short-term pressure.
Japan-U.S. meeting times overlap
The article notes that greater attention is focused on the proximity of the Bank of Japan’s meeting to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. Although the market does not expect a rate hike from the Fed this time, any less dovish guidance following the meeting could still amplify market volatility.
Under this context, if the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, it could further tighten global liquidity. The article notes that higher Japanese interest rates may strengthen the yen and reduce the flow of cheap capital that previously flowed into global risk assets, which is unfavorable for the crypto market.
Overall, this is an opinion-based analytical article. Its core judgment is that, against the backdrop of stablecoin outflows and the upcoming central bank meetings in Japan and the U.S., the crypto market is facing a more sensitive liquidity test.