The cryptocurrency market's Fear and Greed Index fell to 56 on Monday, a neutral reading, returning to pre-rally August lows. The index peaked at 82 on Aug. 26, the highest reading this year and an extreme-greed reading. The index stood at 68 a month ago. The index measures investor appetite from 0 to 100, with 0 representing extreme fear and 100 representing extreme greed.
Bitcoin is trading just above $82,000, down close to 5% for the week. Bitcoin peaked at $86,978 early last week. Bitcoin then fell about 6% to $81,749.83 on Oct. 8. Bitcoin recovered to roughly $83,800 on Monday. Bitcoin remained about 34% below the all-time high above $126,000 reached on Oct. 6, 2025, when extreme greed prevailed.
A strong summer rally lifted Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market out of a severe bear market. However, sentiment has now shifted against typically reliable seasonal trends. The decline following Bitcoin's all-time high extended until August of this year. Bitcoin rose 24.9% during the August rally, prompting Fundstrat co-founder and Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee and CryptoQuant's Kim Yong Yu to declare the bear market over. The Fear and Greed Index now indicates that appetite for cryptocurrency bets has cooled, at least temporarily.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million last week on Wednesday, the worst daily outflow since June. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost another $244.1 million the following day. A $21.1 million inflow on Friday left spot Bitcoin ETFs with net outflows of $386.3 million for October. Ethereum funds extended an outflow streak to nine days. Ethereum funds recorded $635 million in outflows this month.
Macroeconomic pressures have weighed on Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market. Brent crude exceeded $101 a barrel last week as ship attacks around the Strait of Hormuz increased. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.70%, the highest level since 2002. Stocks, gold and Bitcoin sold off together that day, indicating a macroeconomic-driven trade rather than a cryptocurrency-specific problem. Brent is trading near $110 today, even after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would not engage in war at least until November.
Oil is an input cost for shipping, manufacturing, farming and travel, so sustained crude-price increases tend to feed into consumer prices. Higher inflation makes Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts harder and rate increases more likely. The Federal Reserve's latest minutes describe a path toward higher rates. Bond investors demand higher yields because inflation erodes the value of fixed Treasury payments. Treasury yields serve as the benchmark risk-free return. A 30-year Treasury yield of 5.70% draws money away from riskier investments and raises borrowing costs across the economy. Bitcoin pays no yield and trades alongside stocks as a risk asset. Rising yields and expectations of rate increases tend to push Bitcoin lower, as those pressures did on Oct. 7. The macroeconomic background likely explains much of the Fear and Greed Index's decline. Traders are more cautious, especially toward high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Myriad is a prediction market developed by Dastan, Decrypt's parent company. Myriad traders give Bitcoin a 45% chance of touching $87,500 in October, down from 55% on Oct. 7. Myriad traders give Bitcoin a 28% chance of reaching $90,000, down from 36%. Myriad traders give Bitcoin a 56% chance of falling to $80,000 in October, also lower than on Oct. 7. Myriad traders assign a 33% chance to Bitcoin falling to $77,500. Myriad traders assign a 20% chance to Bitcoin falling to $75,000.