Counterpoint: A U.S. ban on optics imports from China would harm domestic cloud companies

ChainCatcher report: According to Counterpoint Research, if the proposed U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) ban on importing Chinese-made optical modules is implemented, it will primarily impact U.S. cloud providers rather than Chinese suppliers. Infinera leads the global data center optical module revenue market with approximately a 27% share, followed by Coherent at around 17%. Chinese manufacturers collectively account for about two-thirds of global unit supply and approximately 60% of optical communication module revenue. The analysis notes that Western suppliers such as Coherent and Lumentum lack sufficient cleanroom capacity, automated packaging infrastructure, and scale of yield to fill the production gap left by Chinese manufacturers within 12–24 months, potentially delaying AI cluster deployments by multiple quarters and increasing material costs for cloud providers. Meanwhile, Chinese module manufacturers derive over 90% of their high-end 800G/1.6T module revenue from North American hyperscale customers, but have partially shifted production overseas by establishing manufacturing facilities in Thailand. Counterpoint emphasizes that the optical module supply chain is a highly interdependent system: Chinese manufacturers source large volumes of DSP chips from Broadcom and Marvell, as well as lasers and photonic chips from Lumentum, Coherent, and Mitsubishi Electric. Forcing a decoupling would disrupt the entire ecosystem.