Copper futures settled at $6.71 per pound on Comex on Tuesday, the highest closing price in the metal’s history. The debasement trade is lifting metals and crypto together.
The trade describes investors rotating into scarce assets on bets that US debt management will erode the dollar. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin (BTC) are all climbing on the same fear.
Treasury Buybacks Revive the Debasement Trade
September copper futures ended the day at $6.71, up roughly 1.6%, according to Trading Economics. Market data firm Barchart had flagged the contract as on course for its strongest closing price in history during the session.
Supply strain explains part of the move, with reports indicating that London Metal Exchange stockpiles fell 14% since late July to 214,550 tonnes. Chile also trimmed its output forecast for a second straight quarter, and an outage at Indonesia’s giant Gresik smelter tightened the market further.
Those shortages powered copper’s record-breaking run earlier in August. The monetary backdrop has since taken over as the main driver.
The US Treasury last week doubled its maximum bond buyback size to at least $4 billion from $2 billion. Critics read the expanded buyback program as stealth easing that shifts pressure onto the currency.
The dollar index sits near three-month lows after its third losing week in four. Gold, meanwhile, traded around $4,666 an ounce and is tracking its best month since 1999. The metal has risen for five straight weeks, gaining more than 5% last week alone, while silver held near $69.
Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh sees room for a push to $4,800, which would extend gold’s three-month high.
“The government’s financial condition is at an inflection point,” Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio indicated.
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Bitcoin Rides the Same Wave Toward $80,000
Bitcoin has moved in lockstep with the metals. BTC trades near $78,900, up about 0.23% in 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data.
The largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $81,000 earlier on Tuesday, its strongest level since May. Its 22% jump last week ranked as its sharpest three-day rally in years.
The Treasury announcement also caught bearish traders off guard. CoinGlass data showed more than $4 billion in short positions liquidated during the breakout.
Stephen Coltman, head of macro at asset manager 21Shares, told CNBC the buyback mattered more for its message than its size.
“The [signaling] effect was very powerful.”
Therefore, one policy decision now anchors three separate rallies. Copper adds a supply squeeze, gold adds central bank credibility fears, and Bitcoin adds a short squeeze on top.
Whether the run continues may depend on the dollar’s next move. Traders will watch upcoming Treasury buyback operations for any sign the pressure on the currency deepens or fades.