TL;DR
- CoinShares says roughly 15% to 20% of the global bitcoin mining fleet is losing money at current hash price and power-cost levels.
- Hash price fell from roughly $36 to $38 per PH/s per day in Q4 to about $29 in Q1, deepening the post-halving squeeze for operators.
- Miners are responding through treasury sales, rig shutdown risk, and an accelerating pivot toward AI and HPC contracts worth more than $70 billion.
Bitcoin mining is entering another margin squeeze, and CoinShares believes a meaningful slice of the industry is already underwater. The warning is not about theoretical stress, but about rigs that no longer make economic sense at current conditions. In its Q1 2026 mining report, CoinShares argues that at a hash price near $30 per PH/s per day, any machine less efficient than an S19 XP running on power priced at 6 cents per kWh or higher is losing money. By its estimate, that now applies to roughly 15% to 20% of the global mining fleet.
Why profitability is getting squeezed so fast
The pressure comes from a brutal convergence of weaker mining economics and still-resilient network competition. CoinShares says hash price fell to about $36 to $38 per PH/s per day during Q4, near breakeven for many operators, then slid further to roughly $29 in Q1. At the same time, the network endured three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments, the first such streak since July 2022, after hashrate rolled over from its October peak. Even so, competition has not eased enough to rescue fleets, leaving mid-generation machines operating below breakeven and forcing miners to absorb a post-halving environment.
That stress is already showing up in miner behavior. CoinShares expects further capitulation in the first half of 2026 unless bitcoin recovers, and it notes that pain has pushed operators to liquidate coins instead of sitting through shrinking margins. Publicly listed miners have collectively cut their bitcoin treasuries by more than 15,000 BTC from peak levels, with Core Scientific, Bitdeer, and Riot cited as sellers. The dynamic matters because it reflects an industry no longer relying on treasury appreciation to mask economics. When cash generation thins out, miners sell assets, power down rigs, or both.
The industry’s response is becoming more strategic, not just more defensive. CoinShares says public miners have announced more than $70 billion in cumulative AI and high-performance computing contracts, widening the gap between pure-play miners and infrastructure companies pivoting toward data center economics. It names WULF, CORZ, CIFR, and HUT as operators becoming data center businesses that happen to mine bitcoin. That shift does not solve the profitability squeeze, but it does explain where management teams see returns. For miners stuck below breakeven, survival now depends on cheaper power, newer machines, or an exit beyond mining.