Foreign media report that the altcoin market has not lost its capacity for high returns, but opportunities are no longer concentrated among the same set of assets. Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap, believes the current market is characterized by rapid rotation around different narratives, rather than a broad-based altcoin rally.
High returns of up to 100x still exist in highly volatile sectors.
Liu said that triple-digit gains still occur in the crypto market, but their locations have changed from the past. She noted that recent meme coins associated with Sun Zhen and tokens on Robinhood Chain have become the focus of short-term capital flows in the market.
She believes that meme coins have re-entered a phase of high volatility, and capturing early capital movements can still yield returns significantly above market averages. However, these opportunities move quickly and rotate more frequently.
In contrast, some projects with more solid fundamentals may not replicate hundredfold gains, but could still offer substantial upside potential. She noted that achieving a 10x to 20x return for such projects remains a plausible discussion point.
The Altcoin Season Index is currently at 36.
Liu uses CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index to illustrate the current stage. This metric measures the performance of the top 100 tokens (excluding stablecoins) relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
- An index above 75 is generally considered a sign of a full altcoin season.
- An index below 25 indicates that the market is still dominated by Bitcoin.
- The current reading is 36, indicating that the market is just beginning to move away from Bitcoin's unilateral dominance.
She noted that the market characteristics over the past 90 days have not been a synchronized rally across all altcoins, but rather rapid shifts between different themes. Currently, tokens related to Launchpads are performing strongly, with Pons on Robinhood Chain ranking highly, and Pump.fun remaining one of the key platforms.
In addition to Launchpad projects, recently active assets also include certain DeFi and established tokens such as Zcash, Litecoin, Uniswap, and Curve. This indicates that the market has not converged on a single trend, but rather is driven by alternating pockets of interest.
It's more important that Bitcoin breaks through key levels.
Liu answered no to the question of whether Bitcoin must first reach a new all-time high before the altcoin season begins. She believes the market places greater importance on whether Bitcoin shows a clear and strong upward movement and breaks key price levels.
In her view, Bitcoin reaching key levels such as $70,000 or $80,000 is often more significant than whether it breaks its all-time high, because such movements typically improve overall liquidity first, boost traders’ risk appetite, and gradually attract capital inflows.
The typical传导 path she described is: Bitcoin leads first, followed by capital flowing into Ethereum and the broader DeFi sector, then spreading to Meme coins. She also noted that recent trading activity on Robinhood Chain reflects this shift. Originally centered on tokenized stocks and real-world assets, Meme coin trading has rapidly become the primary source of activity on the chain, indicating that market preferences continue to shift toward higher-risk themes.