Coinbase Q3 2026 Revenue Falls Short of Expectations, Profits Driven by Bitcoin Gains

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Bitcoin news broke on October 29 as Coinbase (COIN.US) released its Q3 2026 results, reporting revenue of $1.216 billion, a 35% year-over-year decline and below the forecast of $1.233 billion. GAAP net profit was $719 million, primarily driven by $715 million in unrealized gains from its crypto holdings, supported by Bitcoin analysis indicating a 39% price increase. Adjusted net profit came in at $78 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 60% to $333 million. Trading revenue dropped 44% to $590 million, while subscription and service revenue increased 3% to $570 million. Stablecoin revenue totaled $307 million, and the new prediction market business is on track to achieve $200 million in annualized revenue.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Coinbase (COIN.US) announced its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. market close on October 29 (early morning Beijing time on October 30). Total revenue was $1.216 billion, a year-over-year decline of approximately 35%, below the expected $1.233 billion. GAAP net profit was $719 million.
billion, with a diluted earnings per share of $2.51, reversing its previous streak of losses—against a market expectation of a net loss of approximately $35 million.

However, nearly all profits came from $715 million in unrealized gains on its cryptocurrency asset portfolio, driven by a 39% increase in Bitcoin’s price during the third quarter. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency volatility fell to multi-year lows, and industry-wide trading volumes declined by approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter. Excluding this item, adjusted net income was $78 million; adjusted EBITDA reached $333 million, a 60% quarter-over-quarter increase and above the market expectation of approximately $290 million, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. Operating profit for the quarter was $61.7 million, significantly lower than $481 million in the same period last year.

Main business data shows mixed results. Trading revenue amounted to $590 million, halving year-over-year (-44%), but exceeded the market expectation of approximately $527 million; retail investors' spot trading volume declined year-over-year
59%. Subscription and service revenue reached $570 million, up 3% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for nearly half of total revenue, with stablecoin revenue at $307 million—average USDC holdings on the platform reached $2.2 billion.
Billion USD, a new high (+49% year-over-year). Adjusted EBITDA of $333 million, up 60% sequentially and above the expected $290 million, marking the 15th consecutive
The quarter was positive. The company's market share of cryptocurrency trading volume rose to 10.7%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth.

New business emerges as the biggest highlight: Predictive markets achieve annualized revenue exceeding $200 million, with daily active users growing over 60% month-over-month, making it one of the fastest-growing products in company history. CEO
Armstrong stated in the earnings statement that the business "is growing even during the off-season for sports"; CFO Alesia Haas noted that prediction market revenue is less correlated with cryptocurrency volatility. Paid subscriptions to Coinbase
The number of users increased by 24% year-over-year, reaching a new high.

In terms of guidance, the company expects Q4 subscription and service revenue to be between $550 million and $630 million; as of October 25, Q4 trading revenue was approximately $165 million. The company also revises its 2026
The midpoint of the annual adjusted expense guidance has been further reduced by $100 million to $4.15 billion–$4.3 billion. Additionally, regulatory filings show that three executives, including CEO Armstrong, have 10b5-1 selling plans covering approximately
13.6 million shares (approximately $2.2 billion).

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