A new report commissioned by Coinbase issues a cautious but urgent warning: quantum computing will not destroy cryptocurrency tomorrow, but the industry cannot afford to wait.
This 50-page paper was authored by an independent advisory board comprising renowned cryptographers and scholars such as Dan Boneh from Stanford University, Justin Drake from the Ethereum Foundation, and Sreeram Kannan from Eigen Labs. The paper concludes that while blockchains remain secure today, the likelihood of future fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of breaking widely used cryptographic techniques is increasing, and preparation must begin now.
In recent months, concerns about quantum risk have gradually become a mainstream focus. Estimates released by Google researchers suggest that sufficiently advanced quantum technology could pose significant risks.Computers may one day be able to break Bitcoin's encryption.
Major cryptocurrency ecosystems have begun developing countermeasures. The Ethereum Foundation has proposed a new digital signature designed to resist quantum computer attacks., while Solana and other companies are testing quantum-resistant wallet designs.
The report emphasizes that current quantum computers are far from sufficient to break the cryptographic technologies underlying Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other networks. Breaking standard encryption requires enormous computational resources and is still considered a significant engineering challenge.
However, the author also warns against complacency.
The report states: “We are very confident that we will eventually build a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer,” and adds that the timeline is uncertain, but “clearly within reach.”
This uncertainty is precisely the issue, with estimated timelines ranging from "several years to a decade or more," and no reliable method to predict a breakthrough.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) guidelines also reflect this urgency. This recommends migrating to post-quantum cryptography The report notes that even this timeline may be overly optimistic by 2035.
Coinbase's report states, "Waiting until it's an emergency to act is not a good idea," and emphasizes that transitioning across blockchains, wallets, and exchanges may take years to execute safely.
Some assets may be more vulnerable to attacks than others. For example, Bitcoin wallets whose public keys have been exposed may become targets, while those still protected by hash functions may be more secure in the short term.
The good news is that post-quantum cryptography (PQC) already exists and is being standardized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
The bad news is: this is not an easy exchange.
The size of post-quantum digital signatures may be tens or even hundreds of times larger than existing signatures, potentially significantly increasing blockchain data costs and reducing throughput. One estimate in the report suggests that replacing existing signatures with quantum-safe alternatives could increase block sizes by up to 38 times.
In addition, there are challenges related to availability, such as migrating millions of wallets and determining how to handle “lost” or inactive funds that were never upgraded.
The report does not propose a single solution, but outlines multiple transition strategies, including hybrid systems that combine existing cryptographic techniques with post-quantum updates, or allow for gradual switching when needed.
Currently, the author recommends adopting a flexible approach that avoids compromising current security or performance while enabling rapid future upgrades.
The report concludes: "Now is the time to start preparing for this."