Odaily Planet Daily reports: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its FOMC meeting on September 16 has increased to 57%, potentially raising the target rate range to 3.75%–4.00%; the probability of maintaining the current range of 3.50%–3.75% is 43%.
The probability of a rate hike on August 21 was 39.9%, rising to 57% after the Jackson Hole speech on August 28, with market expectations for a September rate cut virtually disappearing.
Polymarket data shows a 52% probability that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged and a 48% probability of a rate hike, with associated trading volume exceeding $66.6 million. Kalshi data shows a 52% probability of holding rates steady and a 48% probability of a rate hike, with associated trading volume exceeding $23.8 million.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, stated that the Fed will remain committed to its 2% inflation target based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, emphasizing that its commitment is one of discipline rather than specific policy decisions. Data shows the 12-month PCE inflation rate at 3.7% and the 6-month reading at 4.1%. (Bitcoin.com News)