BlockBeats news, on May 24, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged by December is 32.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 42.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 20.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 75 basis points is 4.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points is 0.4%.
CME FedWatch: Over 67% Probability of a Fed Rate Hike by Year-End
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Summary
CFT measures show increased scrutiny amid changing expectations for monetary policy. According to Blockbeats, data from CME's 'FedWatch' on May 24, 2026, indicates a 32.1% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady until December. There is a 42.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, a 20.6% chance of a 50-basis-point increase, a 4.4% chance of a 75-basis-point rise, and a 0.4% chance of a 100-basis-point increase. Risk-on assets remain under pressure as market positioning adjusts ahead of key decisions.
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