According to CoinDesk data, today’s CME FedWatch数据显示: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 4.0%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 96.0%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by April is 17.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 0.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by June is 46.8%.
CME FedWatch: 96% Probability of Rate Hold in March 2026
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Summary
CME FedWatch data indicates a 96.0% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in March 2026, with a 4.0% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. By April, the likelihood of a cut rises to 17.3%, while the probability of no change stands at 82.1%. The probability of a 50-basis-point cut remains at 0.6%. By June, a 25-basis-point cut is projected at 46.8%. Market participants are also closely monitoring CFTC compliance and MiCA developments as regulatory pressures intensify.
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