CME FedWatch: 0.688 probability of a Fed rate hike before the May CPI release

AiCoin

Release Time: 2026/06/10 11:05:06

Summary

Interest rate expectations indicate a 0.688 probability of a Fed rate hike before the May CPI data release, according to CME FedWatch. A 25-basis-point hike is the most likely scenario at 0.431, followed by a 50-basis-point hike at 0.212. Inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will be released at 20:30 UTC+8. The market anticipates the May CPI to rise 0.5% year-over-year to 4.2%, with core CPI increasing 0.3% to 2.9%.

According to CME FedWatch data, before tonight’s U.S. May CPI release, the probability of a Fed rate hike this year is 0.688. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 0.431, 50 basis points is 0.212, 75 basis points is 0.042, and 100 basis points is 0.003. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data at 20:30 (UTC+8) tonight. Markets expect a monthly CPI increase of 0.005, an annual growth rate of 0.042, a monthly core CPI increase of 0.003, and an annual core CPI growth rate of 0.029. AI Insight: The market’s pricing of rate hike probabilities ahead of the CPI release reflects heightened caution regarding persistent inflation. Current interest rate expectations remain elevated, indicating deep market reliance on continued Fed tightening. Tonight’s data will directly validate the true trajectory of inflation decline and determine the marginal direction of future monetary policy adjustments. This data serves as a key indicator of potential Fed policy shifts, and its outcome will reshape market pricing for the year’s interest rate path.

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