According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged is 98.6% by June (up from 98.8% prior to the decision), 96.5% by July (up from 94.6%), and 96.1% by September (up from 92.7%). The cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.4% by June (up from 1.2%), 3.4% by July (down from 5.4%), and 3.8% by September (down from 7.2%).
CME Data Shows Shift in Probability of Fed Rate Cuts in Q2 2026
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Summary
Interest rate expectations from the CME FedWatch tool reflect updated projections for the Fed’s 2026 decisions. The probability of no rate change in June 2026 increased to 98.6%, up slightly from 98.8%. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut in June is now 1.4%, down from 1.2%. For July, the probability of no cut is 96.5% (up from 94.6%), with a 3.4% chance of a cut (down from 5.4%). In September, the no-cut probability is 96.1% (up from 92.7%), and the cut probability is 3.8% (down from 7.2%).
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