The CLARITY Bill may be divided into multiple independent bills targeting crypto sub-sectors.

ME News reports that on September 8 (UTC+8), Andy, host of The Rollup podcast, posted on X that the prevailing rumor on Capitol Hill is that the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing is nearly zero. Although Polymarket’s prediction market shows a 18% probability, the actual likelihood is likely around 3%–5%. According to his understanding, insiders in Washington are well aware that the bill cannot pass, but no one can openly state this, as the industry has already invested tens of millions of dollars and 18 months of resources to push for its enactment. The Democratic Party has yet to provide a substantive response to ethical concerns regarding Trump’s ties to the crypto sector. Given this, the odds for a “YES” outcome in prediction markets appear inflated—“NO” may be a more值得关注 direction. Andy: “Following the failure of the CLARITY Act, it is likely the legislation will be broken down into several separate bills targeting specific segments of the crypto market. After the CLARITY Act’s collapse, we may see targeted exemptions, regulations, or niche bills emerging for stablecoins, asset tokenization, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. At this stage, lawmakers are increasingly favoring a granular, specialized approach over a broad, comprehensive crypto bill. Based on my discussions with insiders in Washington, this is the far more probable long-term outcome.” (Source: ODAILY)