The uncertainty around the highly anticipated regulatory bill continues with new negotiations in Washington. New ethics proposals and political disagreements threaten the legislation’s chances of becoming law this year.
Prediction markets now assign a much lower probability of becoming law this year, around 31%-35%, down from the 70% peaks earlier this year.
Highly Important Weekend
Popular journalist Eleanor Terrett noted on X earlier today that this weekend will be a “high-stakes waiting game” for supporters of the bill as the White House “considers an ethics counteroffer involving a state attorney general.”
The proposal reportedly centers on one of the bill’s biggest remaining sticking points: whether state attorneys general should retain authority in enforcing certain ethics provisions involving federal officials.
Bipartisan negotiations between Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego continue, as both believe the bill has to contain a stronger ethics package than the one proposed by the White House and two Senate Republicans at the end of July. Terrett cited three sources familiar with the matter, indicating that the initial offer did not receive approval from Tillis, Gallego, and other Democrats.
Instead, they believe state attorneys general should be able to sue the Department of Justice if it fails to enforce ethics laws against federal officials.
One of the issues with the White House’s proposal is that the ethics provisions would remain in force through January 2029, and there are few clues on what happens next.
With the Senate scheduled to begin its August recess next week, experts and observers believe the bill has only a narrow window remaining this year, which is why the odds on prediction markets continue to dwindle. If lawmakers fail to move it forward before the break, the prospects are likely to deteriorate significantly as attention shifts toward the midterm elections.
Saylor Supports
Most key figures in the cryptocurrency industry have expressed support for the bill over the past year or so. Michael Saylor, the Chairman of the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, doubled down in the past 24 hours.
He believes that BTC will succeed with or without the bill, but added that “America needs clarity for digital assets.”
I support advancing the CLARITY Act through bipartisan work to establish clear, durable rules, protect property rights, promote innovation, and strengthen American capital markets. Bitcoin will succeed with or without legislation, but America needs clarity for digital assets. https://t.co/LYqpPb5zKL
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) July 31, 2026
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