Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to Polymarket data, the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31 is 21%, with related contract trading volume exceeding $5.5 million as of August 9. Galaxy Research previously lowered its expectation for the bill’s passage by 2026 from 50% to 30%. On August 8, the U.S. Senate filed a motion to end debate on the motion to proceed with the bill, but no full chamber vote was held. Senators will reconvene on September 14, and under procedural rules, the first cloture vote is scheduled for September 15. The CLARITY Act aims to delineate regulatory jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Ongoing Senate negotiations remain unresolved on three key issues: ethics enforcement, illicit finance provisions, and stablecoin yields. Passage of the bill via cloture requires 60 votes in support.
The probability of the CLARITY Act passing drops to 21% by year-end, with Senate votes scheduled for September 15.
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Summary
Risk-on assets regained attention as the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by year-end dropped to 21%, according to Polymarket data as of August 9. Related contract volume exceeded $5.5 million. Galaxy Research lowered its 2026 projection from 50% to 30%. The Senate proposed ending debate on August 8 but did not proceed to a full vote. The first CFTC vote on closing debate is scheduled for September 15. The bill defines the roles of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets but faces challenges regarding ethics, illegal financial activity, and stablecoin yields. A 60-vote threshold remains critical.
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