Prediction market traders are getting more optimistic that Washington may finally pass a crypto market structure bill, with odds surging to multi-week highs on Monday on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Polymarket bettors put the chance that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year at nearly 30% Monday morning, up from just 12% earlier in September. That’s the highest level since early August, according to the event contract’s dashboard.
On Kalshi, the market for whether the the crypto market structure bill becomes law before October 1, 2027, rose to as high as 64% overnight from 26% on Thursday, before settling back to around 53% Monday morning.
Traders put the odds of passage before July 1 at 53%, versus 30% Thursday, after the contract briefly surged to 69%. The chance of legislation becoming law before April most recently stood at at 45%, roughly double Thursday's 23%.
The moves show traders see a clearer path for crypto legislation as the Senate approaches a key procedural vote Tuesday. But there's still plenty of road between a favorable vote and a presidential signature.
Tuesday's Senate cloture vote requires 60 senators, forcing the measure to draw bipartisan support. Clearing that threshold would be an important political milestone, but it would not amount to final Senate passage.
Lawmakers could still face a lengthy amendment process of the bill. Any changes would also have to be reconciled with the House before legislation could head to the president, while the congressional calendar adds another source of uncertainty.
The next move belongs to the Democrats, because this wasn't a negotiated package, one analyst said.
Jaret Sieberg, a financial policy analyst for TD Cowen, said the Democratic lawmakers may not see enough here to justify getting on board, so he maintained a 25% chance of Clarity Act passage on Monday.
"We are not convinced the updated ethics language Senate Republicans released last night is substantive enough for moderate Democrats," he wrote in a note to clients.
The problems for Democrats: President Trump would still be able to maintain his crypto investments, even if they're structured in a blind trust, so it doesn't sever him from the industry he has such an influence on. And the powers for state attorneys general to sue remain very narrow, with no direct actions possible against the president. Also, Trump would tout a yes vote as a major personal victory, Sieberg said, potentially carrying a political cost for the November elections.
On the positive side, Sieberg noted, the changes could give Democrats a little more political cover if they wanted to support the bill, and bankers may feel more comfortable with it because of the extra protections it gives their deposit accounts from customers running to stablecoins.
He said that because the administration hasn't yet offered Democrat nominations to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, those could be offered up to sweeten the deal in a final negotiation.