Hu 火星 Finance reports that on August 3, investment firm Bernstein stated that the prospects for the passage of the U.S. CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) are declining. If the Senate fails to advance the bill before its recess, it could trigger a short-term negative market reaction, further pressuring valuations of Bitcoin and broader crypto assets. Bernstein noted that failure of the bill could lead to a market "knee-jerk sell-off," but in the medium to long term, it may also prompt the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to accelerate regulatory actions—including clarifying token classification rules, establishing a regulatory framework for decentralized finance (DeFi), and advancing token issuance exemption mechanisms. Bernstein expects the crypto market to bottom out by late Q3 to early Q4, gradually regaining momentum ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Currently, market expectations for the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of 2026 continue to decline. Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of the bill passing this year has dropped to 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago and 9 percentage points over the past month, with associated betting amounts totaling approximately $3.7 million. The CLARITY Act aims to establish the U.S.'s first regulatory framework for digital assets, but has faced opposition from the banking sector over provisions related to stablecoin yields. Previously, Galaxy Digital lowered its probability estimate for the bill's enactment by end-2026 to 50%, warning that time for Senate action is running out.
CLARITY Act Fails to Pass, May Trigger Short-Term Crypto Market Sell-Off
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Summary
Liquidity and crypto markets came under fresh pressure after Bernstein reported that the prospects for the CLARITY Act’s passage have declined. The investment firm warned of an instinctive sell-off if the bill fails before the Senate recess, which could negatively impact Bitcoin and broader market valuations. Bernstein also highlighted potential CFT (Countering the Financing of Terrorism) enforcement actions alongside token classification rules. Polymarket data shows the bill’s probability of passing has now dropped to 31%, down 9 percentage points in a month, with $3.7 million in bets placed.
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