Citrini Analyst: South Korean Foundries Remain Cautious About 3D IC Commercialization, China’s ChangXin Targets Niche Market

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on July 25, Citrini analyst Jukan, citing a recent industry analysis from ZDNet Korea, noted that the competition in AI semiconductor performance is shifting from process miniaturization to advanced stacking technologies, with 3D ICs—vertically integrating logic and memory—emerging as the next-generation key technology. Samsung Foundry has recently seen a surge in inquiries for 3D ICs, with nearly every potential customer asking about this technology. However, Jukan believes that 3D ICs are essentially custom-designed DRAMs, which fundamentally conflicts with the core business model of Samsung and SK Hynix, which rely on mass-producing standardized products. Both Korean firms are expected to limit themselves to preliminary research and remain cautious about full-scale commercialization. This structural hesitation has opened a window for niche players. Due to U.S. semiconductor restrictions, CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) has struggled to enter the HBM market and is now targeting 3D ICs as a differentiation strategy, focusing on customized memory rather than competing head-on with Korean firms in bulk DRAM. Korean semiconductor industry officials indicate that China has already produced multiple 3D DRAM sample chips, and niche participants such as CXMT and Winbond are likely to be the first to establish this market. Analyst Jukan previously also clearly stated that NVIDIA’s CUDA moat is coming to an end, and the erosion of software ecosystem barriers is occurring in tandem with the trend toward 3D IC customization, suggesting that the next-generation AI memory landscape may face structural disruption. Note: “Niche market” is a transliteration of “Niche Market,” referring to a specialized segment within a larger market that mainstream players overlook or avoid; “niche players” are companies focused on such specialized segments.