Citrini Analyst Predicts AMD to Benefit as CUDA's Competitive Edge Erodes

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Citrini analyst Jukan highlighted a shifting risk-to-reward ratio in the GPU market as CUDA’s dominance weakens. DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng noted that AI code generation and TileLang are lowering CUDA’s entry barriers. DeepSeek now uses its own compiler and TileLang, reducing its reliance on NVIDIA’s software. Liang added that porting these tools to Huawei chips could rapidly address China’s chip ecosystem challenges, apart from production constraints. Jukan views AMD as a long-term play and NVIDIA as a short-term position, as software tools erode NVIDIA’s competitive advantage. Support and resistance levels for both stocks may shift as this trend gains momentum.
ME AI message, Citrini analyst Jukan cites recent key insights from DeepSeek founder Liang Wenhong, noting that AI-driven code generation and advanced programming languages like TileLang are rapidly lowering the barriers to entry for the CUDA ecosystem. Although DeepSeek trained its V3 model using NVIDIA GPUs, it has significantly reduced its dependence on NVIDIA’s software ecosystem through its proprietary compiler and TileLang environment. Previously, Liang Wenhong estimated that if TileLang and the DeepSeek compiler were ported to Huawei chips, China’s chip ecosystem challenges could be largely resolved within about a year, with production capacity remaining the only true bottleneck. Liang quantified the gap between Chinese and U.S. chips—hardware efficiency is roughly four times lower, with a two-year time lag—and revealed that DeepSeek is closely collaborating with Huawei, expecting to receive approximately 16,000 Huawei AI chips; the Huawei 950 SuperNode can replace workloads typically handled by GB200/GB300. Analyst Jukan characterizes this as “CUDA’s moat is coming to an end,” and is extremely bearish on NVIDIA. Jukan added that this same logic is one key reason to be bullish on AMD—advances in AI coding will naturally accelerate the growth of the ROCm ecosystem, helping narrow its gap with CUDA. AMD recently announced it will actively use Claude Code for chip design and software engineering as part of its investment in Anthropic. Overall, advances in AI programming tools are systematically eroding NVIDIA’s competitive moat from the software side; China’s chip ecosystem challenges will be rapidly resolved through improved code generation capabilities; AMD benefits from accelerated ROCm adoption; and NVIDIA’s CUDA moat, which has long sustained developer loyalty, now faces dual pressure—with hardware efficiency and production capacity catching up being merely a matter of time. (Source: BlockBeats)
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