Citrini Analyst: Intel's $20 billion share offering signals confidence, progress in manufacturing, and EMIB business advancements

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on August 14, Citrini analyst Jukan noted that Guoxin Securities’ latest overseas electronics research report views Intel’s $20 billion stock offering as a positive signal, with CEO Chen Liwu and his family directly subscribing to approximately $12 million, demonstrating management’s confidence in the company’s prospects. Guoxin Securities reaffirmed its “Buy” rating and $136 price target for Intel, raising its EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 by 3% and 1%, respectively. Jukan cited the report stating that Intel’s offering size was increased from an initial $15 billion to $20 billion, with institutional demand reportedly exceeding $100 billion; the offering price was set at $95, and the overallotment option has been fully exercised. Guoxin Securities believes management’s subscription will further support Intel’s capital expenditures through 2027. The report forecasts that Intel’s foundry business will break even in the fourth quarter of 2027, with margin leverage expected to further unlock in 2028. Current 18A yield is estimated at approximately 80%, and Clearwater Forest has entered mass production ramp-up; Apple’s 14A high-volume progress is also noteworthy. Additionally, Intel’s EMIB customer base continues to expand: AWS Trainium3 is expected to adopt EMIB-T in 2027; Google’s Humufish/Triggerfish are projected to enter scale-up phases from late 2027 through 2028; and AWS and Microsoft ASICs may also adopt EMIB in 2028. Based on this, Guoxin Securities raised its backend revenue forecasts for Intel in 2027 and 2028 to $1.1 billion and $7 billion, respectively, while maintaining its $136 price target after accounting for dilution from the offering.