According to a research report from CITIC Securities, in August, the U.S. non-farm payroll increase significantly exceeded expectations, with notable contributions from the leisure and hospitality and healthcare sectors, and a rebound in local government education employment. On the private sector side, goods-producing industries added jobs for the sixth consecutive month, possibly reflecting demand from U.S. data center construction. Employment declines in the financial and information technology sectors reflect the impact of AI. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% (4.14% when rounded to two decimal places), while the labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%; the continued decline in participation among those aged 45–54 requires further monitoring. The strong August non-farm data, offset by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, led markets to reprice the probability of a September rate hike at around 60%. The next key focus is the August CPI release on September 11. (Jinshi)
CITIC Securities: Strong Nonfarm Payrolls Offset Waller's Remarks; Market Awaits CPI
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Summary
CITIC Securities noted that the U.S. August 2026 nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, led by gains in the leisure, hospitality, and healthcare sectors. The private goods-producing sector added jobs for six consecutive months, potentially driven by demand for data centers. Meanwhile, employment in finance and IT declined, likely due to automation. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, while labor force participation rose to 61.6%. The debate between securities and commodities remains active, as the strong jobs report offsets Waller’s dovish remarks, with markets pricing in a 60% chance of a September rate hike. Liquidity and crypto markets will closely monitor the August CPI release on September 11.
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