Coinbase (COIN) stock heads into second-quarter earnings today after the close under a warning from one of its biggest backers.
Citigroup still rates the stock a buy. Even so, it cut its Coinbase price target from $400 to $235 on July 24, a 41% reduction that landed days before the report.
Citi Keeps Its Buy Rating but Slashes the COIN Stock Target
The gap between that rating and that target is the real story into earnings. Citi analyst Peter Christiansen kept the buy call, yet he still cut 41% off his goal for COIN stock.
His reasoning was blunt. Christiansen expects the quarter to mark a low point for trading, with spot trading volumes near a two-year trough.
That caution did not appear in a vacuum. Coinbase had missed revenue estimates last quarter, and Coinbase stock has fallen about 29% this year, so the market was already braced for a softer stretch.
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Other desks, meanwhile, moved the same way. Clear Street trimmed its target to $225, while Rosenblatt held the $240 call, similar to Citi’s slashed number.
What Wall Street Expects From Coinbase’s Q2
Analysts have set a low bar for Coinbase Q2 earnings. They expect revenue near $1.3 billion, down about 13% from a year earlier and below the $1.41 billion posted last quarter.
The weakness sits in trading.
Forecasts put transaction revenue around $640 million, and Barclays estimates Coinbase handled about $152 billion in volume, well under the Street’s $178 billion view.
Still, the picture is not all bearish. Subscription and services income, including USDC interest, gives Coinbase a steadier base when trading slows. That explains why COIN stock has surged over 5% month-on-month. USDC is the dollar-pegged stablecoin it helps run.
Instead, many traders are looking past the quarter toward US crypto legislation. A market-structure bill called the CLARITY Act would give exchanges clear federal rules, which could pull more institutional money and new products onto platforms like Coinbase. COIN stock has already climbed on signals the bill is near the finish line.
How the Market Is Positioned Into the Print
Positioning, however, sends a mixed message. The put-call ratio, which weighs bearish put bets against bullish calls, points two ways at once.
In standing bets, or open interest, the ratio has eased to 0.74 from about 0.86 in early June. That shift means longer-term positions have turned slightly more bullish on Coinbase stock.
Fresh activity, by contrast, looks defensive. The volume ratio has climbed to 0.75 from about 0.44, which shows traders buying puts to hedge before the results.
Big money, though, has held firm. Chaikin Money Flow, a gauge of whether institutions are buying or selling, sits at 0.03 and has stayed above zero even as COIN stock drifted lower since June.
For now, tonight’s transaction revenue and any volume guidance will decide whether Citi’s caution or those steady inflows prove right. Beyond the quarter, traders are watching Washington, where crypto legislation could reset the story for Coinbase stock.