- Jiang Zhuoer projects Bitcoin could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 in late 2026 based on cycle analysis.
- His forecast relies on Strategy’s mNAV metric, which has reached levels seen before the 2022 market bottom.
- Jiang believes mNAV may lead Bitcoin price cycles by months and plans to reaccumulate near projected lows.
Bitcoin could reach its current bear-market low between October and December 2026, according to Chinese Bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer. In a long-term market forecast, Jiang projected a potential bottom between $42,000 and $44,000, using a cycle model and Strategy’s declining market net asset value, or mNAV. He shared the outlook as mNAV approached levels last seen during the previous bear-market transition in 2022.
Mnav Trend Forms Basis Of Forecast
Jiang pointed to Strategy’s mNAV reading of 0.72 as a key signal. The metric compares the company’s share price with the Bitcoin value backing each share. According to Jiang, the current reading is close to the 0.7 level recorded on May 11, 2022.
At that time, Strategy’s mNAV reached its cycle low before Bitcoin established its final bear-market bottom. However, Jiang stressed that an mNAV low does not automatically mark a Bitcoin price low. Instead, he said the metric may lead Bitcoin by several months.
Previous Cycle Shows Six-Month Gap
To support his view, Jiang referenced the 2022 market cycle. Strategy’s mNAV bottomed at 0.7 when Bitcoin traded near $31,017. Bitcoin later fell to $15,476 on Nov. 21, 2022. Notably, that low arrived roughly six months after the mNAV bottom.
Based on that relationship, Jiang argued that the current mNAV level could point to a later Bitcoin low. He also cited recent market sentiment developments, including the decoupling of STRC, while discussing current conditions. As a result, Jiang described the present mNAV range as a possible low zone for the metric itself.
Mathematical Model Targets Late 2026
Beyond mNAV data, Jiang used a long-term mathematical model to estimate timing and price. He compared Bitcoin’s market cycles to a bouncing ball with decreasing volatility over time.
According to the model, Bitcoin could reach a bear-market bottom around Oct. 31, 2026, near $44,016. Jiang added that the model has historically performed better on timing than price forecasts.
For that reason, he widened the projected range to between $42,000 and $44,000. He also said he recently exited spot holdings and opened short-term bearish positions. According to Jiang, he plans to accumulate spot Bitcoin again near the projected bottom area.