China to Reduce Export Tax Rebate for New Energy Vehicles from 13% to 9%

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush—the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. The Ministry of Finance issued an announcement adjusting the export tax rebate policy for certain products, effective April 1, 2027, reducing the VAT export rebate rate for new energy vehicles from 13% to 9%.

2. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is prepared for an energy ceasefire, but is unsure whether Russian President Putin will agree.

3. The second round of coke price adjustments was implemented yesterday, with steel mills in Hebei and Shandong reducing their coke procurement prices by RMB 100–110 per ton.

4. According to MPOB data, Malaysia’s palm oil inventory in September was 3.5109 million tons, up 24.54% month-over-month.

5. Bank of America expects gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026.

6. The World Silver Survey released by the Silver Institute and Metals Focus expects the silver market to record its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit this year.

1. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of October 12, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Rate Index (Europe Route) stood at 2,264.82 points, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous period.

2. The Ministry of Finance issued an announcement adjusting the export tax rebate policy for certain products, effective April 1, 2027: the VAT export rebate rate for new energy vehicles will be reduced from 13% to 9%. Effective April 1, 2027, the VAT export rebate will be eliminated for products such as electronic cigarette devices. For products subject to consumption tax among the above, the consumption tax export policy will remain unchanged and continue to apply the consumption tax rebate (exemption) policy.

3. According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that the U.S. claim that Iran’s influence in the Strait of Hormuz has become ineffective does not align with ground realities or market responses, including the U.S. having to turn to other countries to secure fuel supplies.

4. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is prepared for an energy ceasefire, but is unsure whether Russian President Putin will agree.

1. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract closed up 1.43% at $93.16 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract rose 1.34% to $106.12 per barrel.

2. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 0.48% to $4,195.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.78% to $60.57 per ounce.

3. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME copper rose 0.56% to $14,621.5 per ton, LME nickel increased 0.05% to $15,630.0 per ton, LME aluminum fell 0.05% to $3,047.0 per ton, LME tin declined 0.16% to $52,920.0 per ton, LME lead dropped 0.29% to $1,882.5 per ton, and LME zinc fell 1.38% to $3,753.0 per ton.

4. As of the close at 23:00 on October 12, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed movements: Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) rose over 6%, Fuel Oil rose over 4%, and Propylene, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Polypropylene, Plastic, Benzene, and Monthly Plastic all rose over 1%. On the downside, Methanol fell over 5%, Ethylene Glycol (EG) fell nearly 2%, and Asphalt, Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC), and Synthetic Rubber all fell over 1%.

1. According to Mysteel, the total global iron ore shipment for the week of October 5–11, 2026, was 30.882 million tons, a decrease of 3.991 million tons week-over-week. The combined shipment from Australia and Brazil totaled 25.022 million tons, down 2.909 million tons week-over-week.

2. The total volume of iron ore arriving at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 25.614 million tons, an increase of 937,000 tons环比; the total volume at 45 ports reached 24.228 million tons, an increase of 1.192 million tons环比; and the total volume at the six northern ports totaled 11.651 million tons, an increase of 880,000 tons环比.

3. According to Mysteel, leaders from 13 steel companies analyzed industry trends; Ding Liguo, Chairman of Delong Steel Industry Group, noted that weak steel demand is expected to persist for some time, and recommended that steel producers increase production cuts to adapt to changing demand.

4. The World Steel Association has released its short-term steel demand forecast report for 2026–2027, projecting that global steel demand in 2026 will remain essentially flat at 1.722 billion metric tons compared to 2025, and will recover with a 1.7% increase to 1.752 billion metric tons in 2027.

5. According to Mysteel, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented yesterday, with steel mills in Hebei and Shandong reducing their coke procurement prices by CNY 100–110 per ton.

6. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in the late September 2026, key steel enterprises produced 18.81 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.881 million tons, a 2.1% decrease环比; based on this estimate, the national daily output of crude steel was 2.35 million tons, down 2.1%环比, daily pig iron output was 2.12 million tons, down 1.0%环比, and daily steel output was 3.92 million tons, up 4.9%环比.

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 12, 2026, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 39,600 metric tons, a decrease of 7,700 metric tons from the previous period (October 8), representing a decline of 16.28%. Commercial inventory stood at 17,300 metric tons, down 4,500 metric tons from the prior period, a decrease of 20.64%.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 12, 2026, the total inventory of soda ash in China amounted to 1.7102 million tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons from the previous week, or 3.85%. Of this, light soda ash inventory was 890,200 tons, down 42,000 tons week-over-week, while heavy soda ash inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 26,500 tons week-over-week.

3. According to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, upon application by the company and after review, the designation of Sinolink Logistics Group Co., Ltd. (now renamed as Sinolink Minerals Group Co., Ltd.) as an approved PTA and bottle chip delivery warehouse is canceled;厦门建发仓储有限公司 is added as an approved PTA and bottle chip delivery warehouse. These changes take effect from the date of this announcement.

4. According to the pricing document, Qatar has set its November offshore crude oil official selling price (OSP) at a $8 per barrel discount to the Oman/Dubai benchmark, and its onshore crude oil official selling price at a $7.50 per barrel discount.

1. Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, Aliya Moldabekova, said: “We haven’t seen levels like this in a long time. This makes the dollar an attractive option, reducing the appeal of gold as an investment asset.” She added that the National Bank of Kazakhstan aims to reduce the proportion of gold in its total foreign exchange reserves by approximately 3 percentage points.

2. Bank of America expects gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026 and forecasts an average gold price of $4,813 per ounce for the full year of 2027. The bank states that gold prices are unlikely to truly bottom out unless all three conditions are met simultaneously: inflation and Iran war concerns subside, the U.S. dollar stops appreciating, and the Federal Reserve exits its tightening cycle.

3. The Central Bank of the Congo stated that it will increase its gold reserves from 3 tons to 5 tons by the end of the year; the Central Bank of the Congo also indicated that it will intervene using its foreign exchange reserves amid persistently rising inflation.

4. According to Mysteel data, China’s polysilicon production in September reached 114,000 metric tons, a 0.35% month-over-month increase but a 15.24% year-over-year decline. As production cut plans were implemented in September, some manufacturers reduced their operating rates. Polysilicon production is expected to reach 98,100 metric tons in October, a 13.95% month-over-month decrease. The capacity utilization rate for domestic polysilicon producers in September was 39.64%, up 0.1% from August. Mysteel forecasts that the polysilicon capacity utilization rate in October 2026 will be 34.11%, down 5.5% month-over-month.

5. According to SMM, following the polysilicon plant meeting this weekend and prior related developments, a polysilicon facility in Qinghai plans to shut down in November—an outcome not previously anticipated by the market. With production reductions in southwestern regions, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and other provinces, the likelihood of polysilicon output falling below 90,000 metric tons in November has significantly increased.

6. According to Mysteel’s research, a newly launched alumina project in Guangxi has recently produced its first output. The facility officially began feeding materials on September 21 and is currently in the phase of quality optimization and production capacity ramp-up, with plans to gradually reach full capacity next month, involving an annual capacity of approximately 2 million tons.

7. The World Silver Survey released by the Silver Institute and Metals Focus forecasts that this year will mark the sixth consecutive year of an annual supply deficit in the silver market. These organizations predict a deficit of 46.3 million ounces this year, up from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, while global mine production is expected to remain flat.

8. Tin miner Alphamin Resources announced that its tin content production from concentrate in the third quarter was 5,030 metric tons, nearly flat compared to the previous quarter, supported by stable ore grade and mining rates. Production increased just 0.3% quarter-over-quarter, remaining essentially flat; tin sales also remained steady at 5,046 metric tons.

Under the narrative of future oversupply, lithium carbonate plunges.

Guangda Futures stated that as the world’s largest single spodumene deposit, Jixiawo has an annual production capacity of approximately 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent when operating at full capacity, significantly strengthening market expectations for spodumene supply release and intensifying concerns about further oversupply in the long term. Looking ahead, current market sentiment remains weak, with no signs of spot shortage and demand expectations continuing to suppress prices. In the short term, prices are likely to remain weak and range-bound, requiring close attention to new fundamental and macroeconomic variables. However, given the ongoing rapid inventory drawdown, if the basis continues to strengthen alongside supply disruptions in Africa and Jiangxi by year-end—creating a supply-demand mismatch—lithium prices could stabilize and rebound. Yet, demand expectations are inherently difficult to confirm or disprove, making it challenging to revise these expectations, which may cap price upside. Should negative feedback emerge, prices could continue to decline.

2. Palm oil production and inventory for September hit expected record highs, placing heavy pressure on actual supply and demand.

Xinhu Futures stated that, overall, the September Malaysian palm oil supply and demand data was slightly bearish compared to expectations, with production and inventories both rising as anticipated to record highs. Although the market had largely priced in the bearish fundamentals for September, October appears likely to see further monthly inventory accumulation unless production drops to the 1.8 million ton level seen in July–August, while exports rise by 20–30% month-over-month—only then might inventories stabilize temporarily. Real-world supply and demand pressures for palm oil remain extremely heavy. GAPKI’s recent data showed August production did not decline as expected month-over-month, and Malaysia’s crude palm oil export tax is also unlikely to be lowered in the near term. International palm oil continues to face significant bearish pressures in the medium to short term. Although El Niño is expected to cause reduced production in Indonesia and Malaysia around the second quarter of 2027, current supply and demand pressures remain too severe, and even during the typical production decline season, output in producing countries may exceed year-earlier levels.