Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s best-known Bitcoin (BTC) miners, sees the Bitcoin bottom landing between $42,000 and $44,000 in late 2026, closely matching Arthur Hayes’ recent $40,000 call.
The founder of mining pool BTC.TOP laid out the forecast in a post, building it on a bearish signal from Strategy’s stock, MSTR. His timing and target both land near the BitMEX co-founder’s.
Strategy’s mNAV Discount Echoes the 2022 Low
Jiang’s case rests on Strategy’s mNAV, which he pegs at 0.72. The metric weighs the stock against the Bitcoin the company holds per share. A reading under 1.0 leaves the firm valued below its own Bitcoin.
The level sits near the 0.7 trough from May 2022, the last time its mNAV collapsed this far. Jiang treats that as the signal, not the timer.
In that cycle, the mNAV bottomed in May with Bitcoin near $31,000. The price then kept sliding to about $15,650 by late November, as the FTX collapse deepened the rout. That gap ran about six months.
“But note that the mNAV low is not the BTC price low,” he added.
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His broader timing comes from a four-year cycle model, one he likens to a bouncing ball losing height. It points to a bottom around October 31, 2026.
Jiang, who has mined through several halving cycles, is already short and plans to buy back near the low.
Hayes Points to a Similar Bitcoin Bottom
Arthur Hayes reached a similar destination by a different route. The BitMEX co-founder laid out the call to content creator EllioTrades on June 12. He sees the Bitcoin bottom near $40,000 within six months.
The bet is tactical, not structural. Hayes holds put spreads as a hedge even as his core positions stay heavily long. His year-end target still runs above $200,000.
Bitcoin recently traded near $61,345, down 2.3% in 24 hours. Jiang’s range sits roughly 30% below that level, while Hayes’ $40,000 floor implies a drop closer to 35%.
Whether mNAV leads price by six months once more is the real test, and it will shape Bitcoin price forecasts heading into late 2026.