China holds meeting to accelerate coal production in Shanxi

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Monday, October 19, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Peak. Futures Morning Peak—the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated that he would not pre-judge interest rate decisions and did not indicate whether the Fed would raise rates again at its monetary policy meeting on October 27–28, or hold short-term rates steady as markets expected.

2. On October 16, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, together with relevant departments, convened a meeting in Taiyuan, Shanxi to accelerate the resumption and increase of coal production to ensure supply.

3. According to the latest data from Argentina’s Secretariat of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, soybean planting intentions for the 2026/27 season are expected to increase by approximately 3%, with a projected planting area of 16.7 million hectares.

4. A court document reviewed by Reuters shows that global mining giant BHP has filed a lawsuit against the union at its Spence copper mine in Chile, alleging that two work stoppages occurred outside the established negotiation period and are therefore “illegal” according to BHP.

5. According to Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the Indonesian government has approved a revised 2026 RKAB nickel production quota of approximately 290 million tons.

6. Antofagasta reached a preliminary agreement and agreed to end the strike.

7. Trump exempts multiple sanctions, restrictions, and tariffs against Russia under the Graham Act.

8. Iran's Foreign Minister: The proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days remains valid.

9. Iran: Contingency plans have been prepared for potential new "adventurous actions."

10. Russian Deputy Prime Minister: Russia consumes 3.5 to 4 million tons of diesel per month and has surplus available for export.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated that he would not pre-judge interest rate decisions and did not indicate whether the Fed would raise rates again at its monetary policy meeting on October 27–28, or hold short-term rates steady as markets expected.

2. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of October 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (composite index) SCFI stood at 3,679.58 points, an increase of 15.47 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (composite index) CCFI stood at 1,922.64 points, up 0.5% from the previous period.

3. Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which discussed and preliminarily approved the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China" and decided to submit the draft to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for review. The meeting noted that this amendment adapts to new circumstances and changes, further improving the price governance mechanism, refining government pricing procedures, and clarifying criteria for identifying unfair pricing practices and associated legal liabilities. It emphasized the need to govern disorderly low-price competition in accordance with the law, establish supporting rules such as industry cost investigations and measures to prevent dumping, and strengthen price enforcement and oversight.

4. U.S. President Trump made his latest remarks on the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East issues: "I know some details about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and at some point I will release them. I hope it ends. The Biden administration has done many bad things regarding Ukraine."

5. According to an executive order issued by the U.S. White House on the 16th, Trump has waived multiple sanctions, restrictions, and tariffs under the Lindsey Graham Sanctions on Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The waiver includes the 500% tariff on Russian goods imported into the U.S., as well as the 100% tariff on countries that are major importers of Russian energy or assist in circumventing sanctions on Russian oil trade.

6. On the 18th, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said that Iran’s armed forces have prepared response plans for any new “adventurous actions.”

7. Iran's Foreign Minister stated that the proposal to "reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days" remains valid. If the United States complies with Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz can be opened within 6 days, with negotiations resuming on the seventh day.

8. According to CCTV News, Iran reported that at 18:15 local time on the 17th, its armed forces fired upon and intercepted a vessel attempting to “violate” passage through the Strait of Hormuz near the Sirik region.

9. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. PPI annual rate for September came in at 6.3%, the highest level since May 2026 and above the market expectation of 5.3%.

10. Federal Reserve Chair Walsh stated that he would not pre-judge interest rate decisions and did not indicate whether the Fed would continue raising rates at its monetary policy meeting on October 27–28 or hold short-term rates steady, as markets expect.

11. European Commission President von der Leyen stated that the EU is preparing its 22nd round of sanctions against Russia.

12. U.S. Vice President Vance said the conflict cannot be considered over until Iran makes a firm commitment to guarantee it will not rebuild its nuclear program.

1. At the close of the night session last Friday, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed movements: fuel oil rose over 4%, soda ash, iron ore, asphalt, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) rose over 1%, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) and propylene rose nearly 1%. On the downside, benzene fell nearly 2%, starch, styrene (EB), and ethylene glycol (EG) fell over 1%, and soybean meal, coking coal, and rapeseed oil fell nearly 1%.

2. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract rose 2.63% to $99.04 per barrel, up 7.83% for the week; the front-month Brent crude oil contract rose 3.8% to $109.95 per barrel, up 4.99% for the week.

3. International precious metals futures closed mixed: COMEX gold futures rose 0.40% to $4,186.70 per ounce, down 0.70% for the week; COMEX silver futures fell 0.04% to $57.13 per ounce, down 6.41% for the week.

4. All base metals in London rose: LME nickel increased 0.98% to $15,370/ton, down 1.61% for the week; LME aluminum rose 0.70% to $3,008/ton, down 1.33% for the week; LME zinc rose 0.48% to $3,682/ton, down 3.25% for the week; LME lead rose 0.21% to $1,885/ton, down 0.16% for the week; LME tin rose 0.14% to $50,195/ton, down 5.30% for the week; LME copper rose 0.09% to $14,359.5/ton, down 1.24% for the week.

1. According to Mysteel, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 165.3467 million tons, an increase of 0.5445 million tons环比; the total inventory at 47 ports is 173.6917 million tons, an increase of 0.5465 million tons环比. Mysteel’s survey shows that the blast furnace utilization rate at 247 steel mills is 80.51%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points环比 from last week; the daily average pig iron output is 2.3366 million tons, a decrease of 0.0018 million tons环比 from last week, and a decrease of 0.729 million tons同比 compared to last year.

2. According to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia, iron ore exports from Port Hedland in September increased to 48.9041 million tons, up from 46.6046 million tons in August; iron ore exports from Port Hedland to China in September reached 40.9581 million tons, compared to 38.0006 million tons in August.

3. On October 16, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, together with relevant departments, convened a meeting in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, to accelerate the resumption and increased production of coal mines to ensure supply. The meeting called on Shanxi Province to expedite the resumption of operations at idled coal mines, maximize coal supply under safe conditions, and promote stable operation of the coal market.

4. HBIS Group's final pricing for ferromanganese in October 2026 is RMB 5,980/ton, compared to RMB 6,050/ton in September and RMB 5,820/ton in October 2025. HBIS Group's ferromanganese procurement volume in October 2026 is 15,250 tons (excluding 7,000 tons of medium and thick plates), compared to 14,800 tons in September and 16,500 tons in October 2025.

5. According to Mysteel, for the sample of 230 independent coke producers nationwide last week: daily coke production was 491,000 tons, down by 60 tons; coke inventory was 412,100 tons, up by 12,600 tons; total coking coal inventory was 7,787,600 tons, down by 62,600 tons.

6. According to Gangyin E-commerce, the total urban inventory this week stood at 9.2072 million metric tons, a decrease of 383,800 metric tons (-4.00%) compared to last week; among which, the total inventory of construction steel was 4.3435 million metric tons, down by 311,200 metric tons (-6.69%); the total inventory of hot-rolled coil was 2.5867 million metric tons, down by 68,600 metric tons (-2.58%).

1. According to Jubo Information, on October 16, Qujing Haishengrun Line 1 (float glass design capacity: 550 tons/day) was shut down.

2. As of October 15, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 156,400 metric tons, down from 190,200 metric tons on October 8, a decrease of 33,500 metric tons month-over-month.

3. According to sources, the acting CEO of Naftogaz of Ukraine stated that Ukraine's natural gas reserves have reached their highest level in six years, with storage facility inventories at approximately 16 billion cubic meters.

4. According to RIA Novosti, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia consumes 3.5 to 4 million tons of diesel per month and has nearly the same amount remaining for export.

1. A court document reviewed by Reuters shows that global mining giant BHP has filed a lawsuit against the union at its Spence copper mine in Chile, alleging that two work stoppages occurred outside the established negotiation period and are therefore "illegal" according to BHP.

2. According to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia, the port of Hedland exported 150,844.00 tons of spodumene concentrate in September, compared to 235,445.00 tons in August. In September, Hedland exported 129,044.00 tons to China, compared to 203,045.00 tons in August.

3. According to Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the Indonesian government has approved a revised 2026 RKAB nickel production quota of approximately 290 million tons. He also noted that the government’s initial target for the 2026 RKAB nickel production was set at approximately 250 to 260 million tons.

4. According to Antaike, at the nickel and stainless steel session, Bai Meng, Deputy Manager of the Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium Division at Antaike Beijing, analyzed the evolution and future trends of the nickel market supply and demand. Due to policy adjustments in major production areas, declining ore grades, and smelting process constraints, global nickel supply may experience its first contraction in a decade by 2026.

5. According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange: Last week, copper inventories increased by 15,218 tons, aluminum inventories decreased by 29,401 tons, zinc inventories decreased by 2,155 tons, lead inventories decreased by 5,423 tons, nickel inventories decreased by 602 tons, and tin inventories decreased by 1,166 tons.

6. Sources say that Chilean copper miner Antofagasta paid a processing fee of over negative $300 per ton when selling copper concentrate to traders.

7. According to the union statement, union workers at the Centinela copper mine, owned by Antofagasta, reached a preliminary agreement with management on a new labor contract and agreed to end the strike.

8. According to court documents reviewed by Reuters, BHP has filed a lawsuit against the union at its Spence copper mine in Chile, alleging that two "illegal work stoppages" in June and July had a "significant" impact on operations and seeking approximately $8.6 million in damages.

1. Why has the reduction in polysilicon production not yet been reflected in futures prices?

Guangfa Futures stated that the reduction in polysilicon production and price support efforts have not yet been reflected in futures prices, primarily because the spot market reflects industry self-discipline by leading enterprises defending their cost floors, but actual transactions remain weak; futures pricing is based on deliverable warehouse receipts, high social inventories, and the current state of downstream end-demand. When spot prices are high and futures prices are low, it benefits downstream companies in making price-fixing purchases, buying hedges, or acquiring polysilicon inventories from spot-futures traders. Looking ahead, three scenarios for future spot-futures convergence are projected; the overall trend remains price consolidation near the cost range, with cost support below and supply pressure above. Although current futures prices are seeking downward support, if production cuts continue and inventories decline, leading to higher transaction prices, opportunities to buy on dips may emerge.

2. Under the narrative of future oversupply, lithium carbonate prices dropped below the 100,000 mark during trading.

China Everbright Futures stated that lithium carbonate prices fell below the 100,000 yuan/ton mark during trading, hitting a new low this year. The core issue behind this decline lies in a shift of the pricing anchor: the market is no longer just trading based on October’s monthly supply and demand, but rather on the 2027 balance sheet. Market institutions have raised their estimates of lithium carbonate inventories, undermining the previous trading thesis built on low inventory and tight supply expectations. On the supply side, the certainty of future capacity coming online has sharply increased due to market news. On the demand side, two key bearish factors have simultaneously materialized. The convergence of supply-side headwinds and demand-side policy disruptions within the same time window has created a complete narrative driving the accelerated price decline. Looking ahead, lithium carbonate may remain weak in the short term, as strong fundamentals continue to be eroded while weak expectations are further reinforced. However, prices below 100,000 yuan/ton are approaching the cost line for some smelting operations, potentially reducing downward pressure from short-selling activity; caution is advised regarding further downside potential.

1. On October 19 at 10:00, the National Bureau of Statistics will release China’s third-quarter GDP and macroeconomic data for September, including industrial value added and real estate development investment;

2. On October 20 at 04:00, the USDA released the U.S. crop progress report;

3. On October 20 at 09:00, the People's Bank of China announced the October one-year and five-year LPR rates;

4. TBA, October 20: ITS/Amspec/SGS to release Malaysia's palm oil export data for October 1-20;

5. TBA on October 21, SPPOMA releases the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia for October 1-20;

6. On October 21 at 22:30, the U.S. EIA released the crude oil inventory report for the week ending October 16;

7. TBA on October 22: Mysteel releases China's weekly production and inventory data for five major steel products;

8. On October 22 at 20:30, the USDA will release the weekly export sales report, and the U.S. Department of Labor will release the weekly initial jobless claims data;

9. On October 23 at 21:45, S&P Global released the preliminary PMI data for manufacturing and services in the US and the eurozone for October.