On July 27, Changxin Technology, the largest IPO in the history of the STAR Market, officially listed. At closing, its stock price stood at RMB 49 per share, a 465.82% increase from its issuance price of RMB 8.66 per share, with a total market capitalization of RMB 3.28 trillion, making it the most valuable company on the A-share market on its first day of trading.
ChangXin Technology's impressive performance has generated substantial profits for the investment banks involved.
First, the sponsorship and underwriting fees. According to disclosure, the sponsor and lead underwriter are CICC and CITIC Construction Investment, with four co-lead underwriters: Guotai Haitong, Guoyuan Securities, Huatai United, and China Merchants Securities. Based on the total fundraising amount of RMB 66.6 billion after full exercise of the over-allotment option, the sponsorship and underwriting fees under the tiered fee structure are approximately RMB 242 million.
For securities firms, the key focus is on co-investment and early-stage equity gains. China Merchants Securities emerged as the biggest winner, with its stake alone generating a paper profit exceeding RMB 10 billion based on the listing day’s share price. In addition, Huaxin Securities holds approximately 0.44%, CITIC Construction Investment, serving as the sponsor, holds about 0.15%, and CICC, Guotai Haitong, and Guoyuan Securities also hold varying percentages of equity.
However, on the first day of Changxin Technology's listing, Huaxin Securities fell 9.43%, and China Merchants Securities fell 2.25%. Since July, Huaxin Securities has declined by 25%, while China Merchants Securities has dropped over 11%.
Analysts from Cathay Securities believe that securities firms, by deeply integrating "investment banking + investment + PE (private equity)," are closely aligned with the technology industry, making technology investment the third growth pillar following international business and wealth management.
“The focus of equity investment has completely shifted from ‘generalized private equity’ to ‘core technological innovation’—‘no investment without hard technology.’ It has become a consensus among all equity investment institutions to deeply engage in technological innovation and align with national strategic future industries,” Guangfa Securities told Caijing.
China Merchants Securities has realized unrealized gains exceeding RMB 10 billion.
China Merchants Securities is undoubtedly the biggest winner among brokerages, having completed multi-layered investments through its subsidiaries, China Merchants Investment and China Merchants Zhiyuan Capital. After piercing through the ownership structure, the company indirectly holds approximately 505 million shares of ChangXin Technology, representing a 0.84% stake prior to the offering.
Among them, China Merchants Securities' wholly owned alternative direct investment subsidiary, CMBI Investment, directly holds 323.7 million shares of Changxin Technology, accounting for 0.54% prior to the offering. Based on the closing price of RMB 49 per share, the market value of its holdings amounts to RMB 15.861 billion. According to disclosures, CMBI Investment's committed capital contribution is RMB 324 million. This means that CMBI Investment's unrealized gain alone reaches RMB 15.5 billion, and this entire gain is fully attributable to China Merchants Securities.
Meanwhile, China Merchants Securities has also made an indirect investment through two industrial funds under its private equity platform, China Merchants Zhiyuan, resulting in a combined stake of 0.30% after piercing through the structure. The two funds have received approximately RMB 370 million in paid-in capital, with their unrealized gains expected to reach several billion yuan. However, as the fund manager, China Merchants Securities receives only management fees and a performance carry.
China Merchants Securities entered ChangXin Technology early, generating substantial returns at a low cost. The profit from this single investment exceeded the company's full-year net profit for 2025. In 2025, China Merchants Securities achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.35 billion.
The sponsor institutions, CICC and CITIC Securities, as mandatory co-investors, also earned substantial returns. Serving as sponsors for ChangXin Technology, they received sponsorship fees alongside co-investment gains. According to disclosures, their subsidiaries, CICC Wealth and CITIC Securities Investment, participated in the mandatory co-investment, each being allocated approximately 115 million shares with a maximum investment of RMB 1 billion, subject to a 24-month lock-up period starting from the listing date. Based on the closing price on the first day of trading, the two brokerages achieved unrealized gains of approximately RMB 4.6 billion from co-investment alone.
Meanwhile, CITIC Construction Investment holds approximately 88.96 million shares of Changxin Technology through its wholly owned subsidiary, CITIC Construction Investment Investment, and China International Capital Corporation holds approximately 81,000 shares indirectly through its wholly owned subsidiary, CICC Capital, which operates a multi-layer fund structure.
Huaan Securities, a mid-sized brokerage headquartered in Hefei, has achieved substantial returns on its investment in CXMT. Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Huaan Jiaye, and its participation in an integrated circuit fund, Huaan Securities holds approximately 264 million shares of CXMT, representing a 0.44% stake prior to the offering. Based on a market-estimated cost of RMB 2.25 per share, Huaan Securities’ unrealized gain amounts to RMB 12.3 billion. In 2025, Huaan Securities reported a net profit attributable to parent shareholders of RMB 2.108 billion.
In addition, Fangzheng Securities, Guotai Haitong, and Guangfa Securities each hold varying percentages of shares.
Founder Securities employs a multi-layered investment structure through "fund nesting": its subsidiary, Founder Hesheng, directly holds 76.6286 million shares of Changxin Technology through the Hezhuang High-Tech fund, while Founder Securities holds a 19.96% stake in this fund. Meanwhile, Hezhuang High-Tech holds a 21.09% stake in Xinxin Lirun, which in turn holds 639.7753 million shares of Changxin Technology. After full layer-by-layer penetration calculation, Founder Securities ultimately holds a total of 42.227 million shares of Changxin Technology. Based on the closing price on July 27, the market value of this holding amounts to RMB 2.069 billion.
Cathay Securities (Haitong Securities) has completed its investment through a private equity platform: Haitong Kaiyuan Investment Management, a subsidiary, directly holds 285,629,700 shares of ChangXin Technology through the Haitong Huiyin Private Equity Partnership. Haitong Kaiyuan holds a 20% stake in this partnership, resulting in Cathay Securities indirectly owning 57,125,900 shares, with an estimated market value of approximately RMB 2.8 billion.
Guangfa Securities participated in the investment through its affiliated entity, Guangzhou Xinde, which directly holds 167.6502 million shares of Changxin Technology. Guangfa Securities holds a 36.83% stake in Guangzhou Xinde, resulting in an indirect holding of 61.7456 million shares in Changxin Technology. Based on the closing price on the first day of listing, the market value of this holding amounts to RMB 3.026 billion.
Brokerages are optimistic about ChangXin's future growth potential.
Several investment banks have offered optimistic outlooks on ChangXin Technology's performance following its listing.
From an industry perspective, according to calculations and forecasts by CITIC Securities, global DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) demand is expected to reach 40.9, 50.6, and 62.2 billion GB in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 21%, 24%, and 23%. The combined direct demand from HBM and AI server CPU DRAM is projected to rise from 24% in 2026 to 32% in 2028, becoming the primary driver of industry demand growth. On the supply side, overseas manufacturers are prioritizing advanced process nodes, cleanroom facilities, and equipment resources for HBM production. New wafer fabs continue to face constraints from cleanroom construction timelines, equipment lead times, process validation, and yield ramp-up challenges. As a result, the global DRAM supply-demand gap is expected to be approximately 4.3%, 5.7%, and 5.9% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with the shortage likely to persist at least until 2028.
According to available data, CXMT is China’s largest, most technologically advanced, and most comprehensively positioned DRAM research, design, and manufacturing integrated enterprise, operating three 12-inch DRAM wafer fabs, ranking first in China and fourth globally by shipment volume and revenue.
Several securities firms stated that the global DRAM market has long been dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which together account for nearly 90% of the market share. Looking ahead, as ChangXin expands its production capacity, accelerates product iteration, and speeds up domestic substitution, the global DRAM market landscape is expected to shift from a "tripolar oligopoly" to a "multi-player competitive" environment.
According to the prospectus, ChangXin Memory Technologies achieved revenue of approximately RMB 50.8 billion and a net profit of approximately RMB 33 billion in the first quarter of this year. For comparison, SK Hynix reported revenue of KRW 5.26 trillion in the first quarter of this year, equivalent to approximately RMB 250–260 billion, meaning ChangXin’s first-quarter revenue is roughly one-fifth of SK Hynix’s.
China Renaissance Securities stated that China's DRAM market demand is expected to account for approximately 34% of the global total. Based on ChangXin's revenue share, the domestic production rate is projected to reach about 23% in the first quarter of 2026. According to TrendForce, ChangXin's revenue share increased to 7.7% in the first quarter of 2026, while the three major original manufacturers collectively hold 90% of the market share. The potential for domestic substitution in the DRAM market remains substantial, with ChangXin leading the trend.
According to the prospectus, RMB 29.5 billion of the proceeds from this listing will be primarily invested in upgrading wafer manufacturing and advancing cutting-edge R&D, aiming to break through high-end memory barriers and secure funding for future products such as HBM. With the expansion of production capacity through these funds, CXMT is expected to generate significant industrial spillover effects, accelerating the large-scale adoption of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials, and driving coordinated development across the upstream and downstream supply chain, marking a pivotal step in the transition of China’s memory industry from import dependence to self-reliance.
Each new storage cycle is driven by emerging technologies that propel product upgrades and innovation, leading to increased total volume, penetration rates, and value of memory devices, thereby elevating the memory market to a higher level. With AI-driven demand on the rise, we are now at the beginning of this new storage cycle. We are confident that the widespread adoption of models and applications will generate sustained and substantial long-term demand for memory,” said Guojin Securities.
This article is from the WeChat public account "Read the Numbers" (ID: dushuyizhi007), author: Zhang Xinpei.