ChangXin Memory Tech's IPO is expected to reach a valuation of 3-5 trillion CNY.

ME News reports that on July 25 (UTC+8), China’s leading domestic memory chip manufacturer, CXMT (XMC), plans to officially list on the STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange next Monday, July 27, with an initial market capitalization of approximately RMB 580 billion. CXMT is poised to become the world’s third-largest DRAM supplier. Below is a summary of current market expectations for its post-listing valuation: UBS’s latest research report suggests that the DRAM industry will face persistent supply-demand imbalances, lasting at least until the second quarter of 2028. This prolonged period of high demand provides critical support for market expectations that CXMT could achieve valuations in the trillion-yuan range or higher. Zhang Xiaorong, Dean of the DeepTech Research Institute, stated that assuming CXMT’s net profit this year reaches around RMB 100 billion, a reasonable P/E ratio of 20–25 times, combined with industry tailwinds, would likely enable it to reach a trillion-yuan market cap after listing. CNBC technology analyst Daniel Haylor noted that CXMT is well-positioned to benefit, particularly amid severe shortages in the mobile memory market. As the world’s three largest memory giants shift significant production capacity toward higher-margin HBM segments, general-purpose DRAM supply will be further constrained—creating a structural opportunity for CXMT, China’s DRAM leader, to achieve substantial growth and valuation re-rating. Senior investment banker Wang Jiyue forecasts that CXMT’s post-listing valuation could reach RMB 2–3 trillion, comparable to SK Hynix. Currently, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have latest TTM P/E ratios of 21.7x and 21.3x, respectively. CITIC Securities’ research report anticipates that memory supply shortages will persist at least until 2027, with price increases continuing throughout 2026. This strengthened industry cycle logic reinforces institutional optimism for a RMB 2–3 trillion valuation for CXMT after listing. Reuters expects its market cap to likely exceed RMB 3 trillion (approximately USD 443 billion), and under the momentum of the AI upcycle and technological self-reliance, it could even reach RMB 5 trillion. Multiple domestic Chinese brokerages unanimously predict that CXMT’s post-listing market cap could reach RMB 2–3 trillion. Key supporting factors include long-term DRAM/HBM demand driven by AI computing power, its status as China’s sole domestic DRAM production platform, backing from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, and the logic of import substitution. Some valuations suggest a reasonable opening range of RMB 2–2.5 trillion. Financial Times analysts expect CXMT’s valuation to surge as high as RMB 3 trillion, primarily driven by the surge in memory chip demand led by AI and its rapidly expanding market share in the global DRAM industry. International analysts remain optimistic about the company’s growth narrative and structural opportunities. Some optimistic institutions and semiconductor industry analysts believe that, under conditions of high industry sentiment and a scarcity premium in China’s A-share semiconductor sector, CXMT’s阶段性 peak market cap could surpass RMB 3 trillion and even reach RMB 4 trillion—potentially higher under extreme scenarios. This view is based on projected high net profits in 2026 and growth-stock valuation logic aligned with global industry leaders. Third-party research (Source: BlockBeats)