Speculators are getting increasingly nervous about stocks and increasingly bullish on oil. That’s the takeaway from the CFTC’s latest Commitments of Traders report, released September 4, which covers futures positioning through September 1.
Non-commercial traders, the category that mostly captures hedge funds and other large speculators, expanded their short positions in S&P 500 futures while simultaneously adding to their long bets on WTI crude oil. They also piled into shorts across treasury and metals futures.
The numbers behind the positioning shift
The prior week’s report, dated August 25, had already shown speculators sitting on a net short position of 67,994 E-mini S&P 500 contracts. The September 1 data indicates that bearish tilt deepened further.
On the energy side, speculators held a net long position of 123,449 WTI crude oil contracts as of August 25. The latest filing shows that figure climbed higher, with traders adding to those bullish bets. In practical terms, each E-mini S&P 500 contract represents $50 times the index value, and each WTI contract covers 1,000 barrels of oil.
Treasuries and metals also under pressure
The bearish sentiment wasn’t confined to equities. Speculators also increased their short positions in both treasury and metals futures during the reporting period.
Shorting treasuries is essentially a bet that bond prices will fall, which happens when yields rise. That positioning is consistent with expectations that interest rates will stay elevated or that inflation hasn’t been fully tamed.
What the COT report actually measures
The CFTC publishes its Commitments of Traders report every Friday, covering positions as of the prior Tuesday. It breaks down futures and options holdings across three categories: commercial traders (companies hedging their actual business exposure), non-commercial traders (speculators), and non-reportable positions (smaller traders below reporting thresholds).
That said, the COT report is a lagging indicator by design. The data is already several days old by the time it’s published, and markets can move dramatically in the interim.
What this positioning means for markets
The growing net short in S&P 500 futures deserves attention for a somewhat counterintuitive reason. Extreme speculative short positioning can actually set the stage for sharp rallies. If the market moves higher against those positions, short covering—where traders buy back contracts to close losing bets—can accelerate the move upward.
For crude oil, the expanding net long position suggests speculators see demand holding up despite broader economic uncertainty. WTI prices have been sensitive to OPEC+ production decisions and global inventory data, and the speculative community appears to be betting that the balance tips toward tighter supply.