On March 23, U.S. President Trump altered his previous plan to target Iranian power plants. Approximately 15 minutes before the announcement, large-scale trading activity emerged in crude oil, stock indices, and other futures markets, suggesting that some investors had anticipated the policy shift.
Subsequently, CFTC analysts reviewed the trading data and referred suspicious transaction leads to law enforcement. However, according to insiders, Mel Gunewardena, a senior advisor to Michael Selig, the CFTC chair appointed by Trump, requested that the relevant team withdraw the report.
This controversy has drawn attention to an investigation involving billions of dollars in transactions. As the war in Iran continues, precisely timed bets have appeared on crude oil, stock futures, and even prediction markets; the U.S. Department of Justice has also launched a parallel investigation.
Abnormal trading occurred before Trump posted a policy shift statement on Truth Social.
Within a two-minute period beginning at 6:49 a.m. Eastern Time on March 23, traders sold Brent and WTI crude oil contracts equivalent to at least 6 million barrels, with volume exceeding 8.5 times that of the same period the previous week.
S&P 500 futures also exhibited similar unusual activity. Contracts with a notional value exceeding $2 billion were traded within a short time, far surpassing the typical volume seen during the pre-market trading session. Abnormal trading volumes were also observed in natural gas and other futures markets.
Approximately 15 minutes later, Trump stated on Truth Social that he had reversed his previous threat. He had previously warned that the U.S. would strike Iranian infrastructure if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
After the announcement, Brent crude oil prices fell as much as 14%, while U.S. crude oil prices also dropped by double-digit percentages. European and U.S. stock markets rebounded from intraday lows to highs, rising approximately 4%.
Tim Skirrow, Head of Derivatives at energy consultancy Energy Aspects, said: “These trades occurred ahead of a major news release that triggered a market sell-off, suggesting either extraordinary luck or prior knowledge of the news.”
However, he also noted that it is not possible to determine which scenario is correct based solely on public data.
The CFTC, which regulates the U.S. derivatives market, subsequently began reviewing the trading activities.
According to individuals familiar with the matter, occupational forensic analysts from the CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight routinely compiled data on the day’s winning and losing traders. Based on observed trading timestamps and identifying clues related to the traders involved, the analysts referred the case leads to the Division of Enforcement, which determines whether to initiate a full investigation into potential insider trading.
Sources involved in internal government discussions requested anonymity. Other sources said representatives from the two departments also held meetings to discuss enhancing collaboration.
But an unusual incident then occurred. According to insiders, Gunevadna requested a supervisor from the market regulation team to withdraw the transfer report. The team members were unsure how to handle this request, as, to their knowledge, such a situation had rarely, if ever, occurred before, and staff were unclear on how to practically withdraw the report.
This approach also breaks with established division-of-labor norms. Previously, collecting large volumes of data and drafting preliminary analyses were typically handled by professional staff, after which lawyers in law enforcement agencies decided whether to pursue further investigation. This time, an advisor to a politically appointed official reportedly attempted to halt the referral of leads and also prepared to personally oversee the data collection process.
Aitan Goelman served as Director of the Enforcement Division at the CFTC from 2014 to February 2017. When asked about such interventions, he stated: “To my knowledge, this practice was not only unusual but had never occurred in any previous administration.”
He also said, "If staff know their work could be halted at any moment, it makes it harder for them to do their jobs."
Gorman served as the company's attorney in a lawsuit filed by CME Group against the CFTC.
Currently, the forensic analysis team has not publicly named any traders who require further investigation.
The CFTC declined to comment on the matter and stated it could not confirm or deny the existence of any related investigation. Journalists sought comment from Gunevadna through the agency's press office but received no response.
A CFTC official said the agency decided to expand its review to include international markets, covering futures, swaps, over-the-counter derivatives, options, and exchange-traded funds.
The official said that Gunevadna, who previously held executive positions at Goldman Sachs and State Street Corp., is currently the highest-ranking official at the CFTC responsible for market analysis and regulation, making him the most suitable person to lead this effort.
The official also stated that the CFTC’s Enforcement Division is still investigating the relevant trading activities, with a focus on transactions in March and April, particularly those on March 23.
A person familiar with the matter revealed earlier this year that the U.S. Department of Justice has also launched a parallel investigation. A spokesperson for the Department of Justice declined to comment on the progress of the investigation last week.
Congress has requested that regulators provide an update. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, stated Tuesday evening that Ciliger and Gunewardena should brief Congress on the progress of the investigation and any potential enforcement actions.
Warren stated in her statement: “It is concerning that reports suggest a senior advisor to Chairman Seelig may have interfered with the agency’s career staff in carrying out their duties to investigate potential insider trading involving billions of dollars.”
Giancarlo is a Wall Street veteran who previously served at the CFTC during Trump’s first term. A few weeks ago, he rejoined the agency as Director of the Office of International Affairs and Senior Market Advisor to the Chair. His specific role in this evidence-gathering process remains unclear.
According to insiders, the CFTC’s forensic analysis team continued to collect and analyze data afterward, but other departments within the agency no longer sought input from the team. Gunevadna subsequently assembled his own team to reanalyze the relevant transactions.
By July, the supervisors previously required to withdraw their referral reports had left the CFTC. Other team members also resigned or were reassigned to different positions, with some placed under the oversight of Gunita Dina. It remains unclear whether these personnel changes are related to this incident.
As internal disputes arise at the CFTC, the agency’s staffing and enforcement capabilities are also shrinking.
Since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, the CFTC’s workforce has decreased by more than 20%, as part of broad government-wide staff reductions. When Selig took over the agency in December last year, he pledged to promote innovation and curb what he called a culture of “regulatory overreach.”
Meanwhile, the number of CFTC enforcement actions has declined significantly. The agency brought 13 enforcement actions in fiscal year 2025 and a roughly similar number in fiscal year 2026; in comparison, there were 58 actions in fiscal year 2024 and 96 in fiscal year 2023.
Concerns over suspicious transactions have extended beyond traditional futures markets to recently approved prediction markets. These platforms allow users to place bets on a variety of events, including American football games, election outcomes, and geopolitical events.
Last year, unidentified traders made millions of dollars by buying options just minutes before Trump announced a pause on tariff measures. This year, notable trading activity also occurred on prediction markets prior to the U.S. military capturing Venezuela’s then-leader Maduro, and before the joint U.S.-Israel operation that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
In April this year, U.S. authorities accused a soldier of betting on the Polymarket prediction market using classified information from the Maduro arrest operation, earning $400,000 in profits. The soldier has pleaded not guilty to the charges brought by the Department of Justice.
At the time, Selig stated in a statement: "Anyone engaging in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading on any of our markets will face severe legal consequences."
However, the scale of bets related to the war with Iran far exceeds that of previously highlighted events.
In May, a group of Democratic lawmakers led by Senator Raphael Warnock sent a letter to Seelig questioning transactions related to the situation in Iran.
The letter stated: "The integrity of the U.S. commodities futures market must always withstand the most rigorous scrutiny."
The lawmakers also emphasized: "It is crucial to conduct this investigation swiftly and transparently. Only then can existing market participants be assured that the market operates stably, with no participant holding an unfair information advantage."
As the conflict escalates, time-sensitive large bets in the market continue to draw attention. On April 7, notable trading activity occurred just before Trump announced his agreement to a two-week ceasefire with Iran; a similar pattern emerged ten days later, prior to Iranian Foreign Minister Alireza阿拉格齐 announcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
It remains to be investigated whether these transactions involved insider information or granted the involved parties an unfair advantage. Another key point of contention is whether regulators can independently review suspicious transactions when internal personnel and management are involved.