Article by Liu Jiao Chain
Last Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data came in stronger than expected, causing Bitcoin to plunge below $80,000. Before we could even process it, it rebounded on its own. Over the weekend, Bitcoin oscillated around the $80,000 level like a soldier defending a key integer barrier. Last night, it finally broke through, and this morning it pulled back below $79,000.
Early in the week, the market watched the chart and saw a barrier above: the 50-week moving average. Since November last year, every rally has failed to approach this resistance line. It’s like a coffin lid, crushing every attempt at a rebound. In May, BTC was repelled at the 30-week line. This time, Bitcoin launched a counterattack four weeks ago from near the 200-week moving average, surging 22%, breaking through the 30-week line, and charging aggressively toward the 50-week wall—only to hit it head-on.
The macroeconomic clouds overhead have not dissipated. Following the jobs report on Friday, market expectations for a September rate hike have quietly risen back to around 60%[1], and this week brings the release of U.S. inflation data. With the probability of rate hikes increasing, expectations for a stronger dollar are growing, and the script of tightening liquidity has never been favorable for risk assets.
Jiao Lian and Xiao Nuan sat in front of the screen, once again discussing and analyzing the 50-day moving average.
TeChain: The script has changed, and so have the chips.
Jiao Chain believes the focus of the debate is not whether 80,000 can be held, but how the script behind the 50-week moving average will unfold.
From a macro perspective, this round of events bears some similarities to what happened two years ago, but also has key differences. In August two years ago, the Japanese yen carry trade collapsed, leading to a massive selloff in global risk assets—a scene many still remember vividly [2]. Now, the same script is playing out again: Japan intervened in August with nearly $100 billion to support the yen, yet even after this intervention, the yen failed to break above the 154 level [2].
The same storm this time didn't capsize Bitcoin. This time, the difference lies in the筹码.
Two years ago, the area above $80,000 was filled with floating supply, leveraged positions, and short-term capital reacting to market rumors—easily scattered by the slightest breeze. Today, a new group has taken over. They’ve moved their coins from exchanges into cold wallets, viewing their positions as long-term, multi-year assets, becoming increasingly immune to interest rate hikes, inflation, and every piece of negative news. With the筹码 shifting from floating to solid, the price now rests on a firmer foundation.
Jiao Chain believes that the tug-of-war at key levels is ultimately a repeated measurement and test of market positioning.
Xiao Nuan: An Analysis Based on Moving Averages
Xiao Nuan spread out a pile of charts beside her. She pulled up the price movements where the 50-week line had been repeatedly tested over the years, examined on-chain筹码 data, and then presented a series of projections.
She estimated roughly: since the 50-week moving average has historically acted as a ceiling for bear market rallies, a pullback after hitting this level is almost inevitable. The first key support lies at the 30-week moving average, around $70K—a typical retracement level following a sharp rally, with roughly a 60% chance of being tested. If market panic intensifies, prices could decline further toward the 200-week moving average near $65K, which has served as the floor in previous bear markets, with about a 20% probability. As for an even more bearish scenario—breaking below the 200-week moving average—that would require a black swan event, and there is currently no indication of such a catalyst based on existing data.
Xiao Nuan also said that, if arranging the bullets according to probability, the heavy load should be placed on the central support, with just a small safety margin left at the deepest point. There’s no need to bet all your ammunition on a deep pit that may never come.
Regarding the scenario of a direct breakout, Xiao Nuan’s analysis suggests that the key lies in the inflation data. If the data comes in lower than expected, leading to a decline in rate hike bets, and the weekly close firmly holds above the 50-week moving average, then, based on the momentum from this rally, there is still considerable upside potential. The probability of this scenario is approximately 20%.
TeChain: The checkpoint is used for testing.
After listening, Jiao Lian thought Xiao Nuan’s reasoning had some merit. However, Jiao Lian tended to approach price fluctuations with more calmness, avoiding obsession with pullbacks or chasing rallies.
Resistance levels are never an objective truth, but rather a collective psychological phenomenon. The more people watch them and the more they hesitate between belief and doubt, the more trading naturally revolves around these moving averages.
80,000 is a key level, the 50-week moving average is a barrier, and the 200-week moving average is also a barrier. Each time price hits these levels and pulls back, the market is retesting the distribution of holdings and the psychological state of holders. A mountain collapsing in front doesn’t change one’s expression—not because they’re fearless, but because their hand has already been replaced. This cycle, whether holding at 80K or retracing to 70K, as long as筹码 continues to accumulate, time remains on the side of long-term believers. What blockchain investing teaches isn’t about any single breakout, but the next cycle—the historical trend that transcends cycles.
Whether it’s a pullback or a breakout, both are merely tuition paid to time. The White Dew has passed; each autumn rain brings cooler weather. From tonight, the dew turns white; the moon shines brightest over home.