BTC Rebounds Amid Security Incident and Market Pressures

According to QCP Capital’s market report on August 7, BTC rebounded this week from a low of approximately $62,500 to around $64,000. Despite significant pressure during the period—Strategy sold 1,638 BTC (approximately $104.7 million) last week, and the Coldcard security incident affected around 5,000 wallets, with estimated losses of about 1,755 BTC (approximately $1.1 billion)—the market did not experience sustained downward pressure. The options market also showed no signs of panic: at-the-money implied volatilities for 7-day and 30-day expiries stood at 28.8 and 32.6, respectively, near the lower end of their recent range; the 7-day 25-delta risk reversal narrowed rapidly from -7.39 to -2.10, indicating a marked easing of short-term downside skew. On the macro front, the U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 (a four-year high), but employment data weakened, with ADP private employment adding only 44,000 jobs; markets are now awaiting the later release of the non-farm payrolls data (The Wall Street Journal expects an increase of approximately 83,000). Additionally, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, with Brent crude oil rebounding above $83; yen intervention and movements in Japanese government bond yields continue to influence global liquidity expectations.