BTC rally shows bullish structure; whales are not selling

Huo Xing Finance reports that on September 6, on-chain analyst Murphy published an analysis titled “Anomalous Behavior During the Rally: Large Whales Are Not Dumping.” The “BTC On-Chain Accumulation Trend Score” is typically used to measure the directional behavior of large whales over the past 30 days—whether they are net accumulating or net distributing. A score close to 1 (black curve on the chart) directly indicates that entities holding thousands or tens of thousands of BTC are accumulating. A score close to 0 (yellow curve on the chart) suggests two possibilities: either whales are distributing, or they are standing pat. Looking at historical data, during the January surge to $97,000 and the May rally to $82,000 this year, the curve was yellow, indicating that while prices were rebounding, large holders were net selling—this is the standard structure of a bear market rally, where price increases are driven by short covering and short-term capital, while large holders take the opportunity to exit, leaving no underlying demand to sustain the rally. In contrast, during the current rally from $60,000 to $80,000, the curve has been black, indicating that over the past 30 days, whales have been net buyers. Among three recent rallies, this is the first time price has risen alongside whale accumulation. Of course, whale accumulation does not necessarily mean a bottom has been reached or that a trend reversal is guaranteed—but it does suggest that this rally has a fundamentally healthy structure. Similar patterns typically occur only during the primary uptrend phase of a bull market: rising prices accompanied by concurrent whale accumulation. This structure was not present at the bottom of the previous bear market. After the FTX collapse in November 2022, the curve was dark at around $16,000, but turned yellow during the January 2023 rally. This means whales bought at the bottom but then cashed in profits during the rally—or at least stopped accumulating. So why did prices rise in January 2023? It was likely driven by three factors: derivatives short covering, a shift in macroeconomic expectations, and liquidity constraints following FTX’s collapse amplifying price elasticity—factors that are not captured by this chart, which does not reflect accumulation by smaller investors. Thus, by comparison, there is a fundamental difference between January 2023 and August 2026: although price paths appear similar, the underlying on-chain capital structure is not. Finally, note that this metric alone cannot predict price direction—but it is highly useful for assessing whether a rally is structurally healthy. This insight significantly aids in identifying trend formation and building market confidence.