BTC investors holding for 3 to 6 months show reluctance to sell for short-term gains.

Huo Xing Finance reports that on September 13, analyst Murphy stated that on-chain data provides a clear insight into the prevailing trading sentiment among representative investors at this stage. First, very few investors who bought BTC in the past 3–6 months have realized profits. This means that most of those who bought at the bottom during this period are unwilling to take profits at current levels—these are the STHs (short-term holders) most closely resembling LTHs (long-term holders). Traders who are not selling now are likely aiming for medium- to long-term positions. Additionally, a large number of investors who bought BTC in the past 6–12 months are currently at a loss. This group encompasses nearly all the accumulated positions from the entire bear market, including many LTHs who are not true believers but became long-term holders passively after sustaining paper losses. As a result, they remain the most volatile group during every major sell-off or rebound. From a macro cycle perspective, BTC cannot fully enter its next phase until this selling pressure is gradually exhausted. Recently, Murphy published an analysis explaining why Bitcoin struggles to break above $82,000. First, STH positions are concentrated between $59,000 and $81,000; breaking above $82,000 would trigger profit-taking by some short-term speculative capital—this is the first layer of selling pressure. Second, the densest concentration of LTH positions lies precisely between $81,000 and $82,000, where holders tend to exit once prices approach their break-even point—this is the second layer of selling pressure. The analyst believes that breaking through $82,000 faces clear short-term resistance; the market requires time to absorb this divergence and supply. Once the market regains momentum and successfully breaks through, a clear upward path lies ahead.