BTC Enters Nonfarm Payrolls Window Amid Fed Policy Uncertainty

ChainCatcher report: According to QCP Capital’s weekly market update, following Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike rose from 35% to 70%, causing BTC to drop approximately 2.5% in a single day. After nine consecutive days of net inflows, ETFs recorded a net outflow of $2.02 billion. However, the dollar failed to sustain its hawkish pricing, with the DXY falling below 99.5, allowing gold, silver, and BTC to recover their losses. On the fiscal front, the U.S. Treasury will initiate its first long-end liquidity support operation on September 9, raising the purchase cap to at least $4 billion (up from $2 billion previously). The auction yield for 30-year Treasuries on August 30 was 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the market will closely monitor whether this operation effectively improves long-end liquidity. On inflation, July’s PCE came in at 3.7% (core at 3.3%), while CPI was 3.4% (core at 2.5%). Brent crude rose approximately 10% for the week due to attacks on the Strait of Hormuz and force majeure events affecting Qatari LNG, sustaining inflationary pressures. Waller stated that if upcoming data over the next two weeks continue along current trends, it would support pausing rate hikes—combined with ADP employment data of only 38,000 (the weakest since January)—the probability of a September rate hike has now retreated to 45–50%.