BTC consolidates at highs, HYPE hits new record amid bullish trends

Last week, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision was announced as expected, and BTC completed a "consolidation followed by breakout" movement between $74,950 and $81,950, closely aligning with our previously projected "Path Two." Following our strategy, we initiated a long position at the multi-factor convergence point following the announcement, and decisively closed the position near the $82,850 resistance zone when price stagnated and exhibited top-side confirmation signals, achieving approximately a 4.76% profit from this short-term trade.

Meanwhile, HYPE rebounded strongly after touching a low near $75, reaching a new all-time high of $94.52 on September 19, fully validating the earlier assessment that a correction would follow the completion of the upward trend on the daily chart.

This week, both assets have reached critical levels: BTC is approaching the upper boundary of its trading range at $82,850, while HYPE has entered a deeply overbought zone near its all-time high. Our "Spread Trading Model" has triggered top warning signals, and our "Momentum Quantitative Model" has simultaneously shown signs of top divergence. As prices approach these highs, it’s essential to remain disciplined and avoid chasing upward momentum.

This week, we will introduce the Chan Theory analysis system for the first time to systematically break down the daily-level price structures of BTC and HYPE, with a focus on identifying the termination points of BTC’s upward segment (6-7) and HYPE’s upward segment (16-17), while incorporating support and resistance levels to provide medium- to short-term trading strategies.

This week's key trading insights summary:

• BTC Daily Chart Trend Structure Analysis (see Part One for details)

• BTC Weekly Market Outlook and Short- to Medium-Term Trading Strategy (see Part Two for details)

• HYPE Daily Chart Trend Structure Analysis (see Part Three for details)

• HYPE Weekly Market Outlook and Short-Term Trading Strategy (see Part 4 for details)

Last week's trading strategy market validation:

• BTC Short-Term Trading Performance: Last week, we executed a short-term long position (1x leverage) according to our predefined strategy, successfully achieving a profit of approximately 4.76%. (See Section Five for details.)

Last week’s analysis, based on the moving average framework, clearly defined the price structure of BTC following its recent rebound high of $82,300 on September 3 (the rebound began on July 1). The price maintained a high-range consolidation pattern, with the upper boundary near $82,850 and the lower boundary around $75,500, while simultaneously forming a second daily-level upward central region. In light of the key timing window of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 17 (Beijing time), last week’s analysis outlined two possible evolutionary paths for the following week and established corresponding short-term trading strategies. The actual price movement confirmed this scenario: the weekly low touched approximately $74,950, while the high reached around $81,950—closely aligning with “Path Two” as projected (see detailed projection in the September 14 weekly review).

This week, we will introduce the Chan Theory analysis system to further break down and forecast the current daily price structure.

Figure 1: Bitcoin daily candlestick chart

1. Overall Framework

As shown in Figure 1: Since rebounding from the low on July 1, BTC has clearly formed a seven-phase upward structure ranging from (0-1) to (6-7), and is currently in the process of constructing the (6-7) upward phase.

2. Structural analysis based on Central Point A:

Based on the overlapping movements of segments (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4), the first daily-level upward central zone (Central A) has been formed. Here, (0-1) is the entry segment of the central zone, and (4-5) is the exit segment. Comparing the upward momentum of the entry and exit segments of Central A, the exit segment shows significantly stronger upward force. Based on this, it is highly likely that a second upward central zone will form after the termination of the exit segment, starting from "Point 5."

3. The daily chart remains in a high-level consolidation, forming a second potential upward central zone.

Since "Point 5," a downward leg (5-6) has completed, and we are currently building an upward leg (6-7). As of now, this leg has approached the upper boundary of the range at $82,850; the price has experienced a short-term consecutive rally, and multiple technical indicators are in overbought territory. Our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" has triggered a top warning signal (yellow-white dots), while simultaneously, the "Momentum Quantitative Model" is in a top divergence phase (a prerequisite for forming a momentum bearish divergence). Therefore, it is not advisable to chase prices at this level; be cautious of potential short-term corrections and monitor for possible formation of a subsequent downward leg.

1. BTC Weekly Price Movement Forecast

This week’s key insight: Focus on the termination point of the (6-7) upward segment, while simultaneously monitoring the potential formation of a subsequent downward segment.

2. Key Resistance Level

• First resistance zone: around $82,850 (previous key level)

• Second resistance zone: $84,500 to $86,500 (previous key resistance area)

• Third resistance zone: $90,000 area (key psychological level)

3. Key Support Level

• First support level: $79,500–$80,500 range (previous key support level)

• Second support level: $73,500–$75,000 range (previous key support level)

• Third support level: $67,300–$69,100 range (previous key support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Impact from Sudden News)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Figure 2: Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 2, the price has broken through the "long-short channel" but has not yet entered the pullback confirmation phase. Therefore, the current medium-term strategy is to remain out of the market and observe.

② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of your position size, set a stop-loss level, and identify spread opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use a 30-minute or 60-minute time frame for trading.)

③. For short-term trading, to dynamically adapt to the complex evolution of the market, we have pre-established two operational plans, A and B.

• Option A: Light short position test at a strong resistance zone.

• Open Position: If the price rises to the $82,850–$84,500 range, shows a clear rejection pattern, and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a top signal, consider establishing a short position of approximately 30%.

• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss level.

• Close Positions: When the price adjusts near key support levels and aligns with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

• Option B: Light long position test at a strong support zone.

• Open Position: If the price retraces to the aforementioned key support level, shows a clear stabilization pattern, and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a bottom signal, consider opening a long position of approximately 30%.

• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss level.

• Close Position: When the price rebounds near a key resistance level and aligns with model signals, gradually close your position to realize profits.

In last week’s review, we introduced the Chan Theory analysis framework to deconstruct and assess the upward segment on the daily chart (14–15) within the 4-hour timeframe: the daily-level bullish trend initiated at “Point 14” (the August 2 low of $51.11) was confirmed to have ended at “Point 15” (the September 6 high of $89.76), leading us to anticipate an upcoming correction. Last week’s actual price action confirmed this: the daily-level downward segment (15–16) saw price adjust from the high of $89.76 to a low of $75.10, with a maximum drawdown of 16.33%. Our prior analysis has been fully validated by market movement.

This week, we will analyze the current price structure at the daily time frame.

Figure 3: HYPE Daily Candlestick Chart

1. The uptrend continues

As shown in Figure 3: After HYPE stabilized near the low point 16 (the September 15 low of $75.18), it initiated an upward daily trend (16–17); this phase reached a new all-time high of $94.52 on September 19, and the upward structure has not yet been confirmed as completed. The emergence of this new high confirms that the current uptrend, which began at the January 21 low of $20.46, remains intact.

2. After reaching a new price high, the indicator enters a deeply overbought zone.

As shown in Figure 3, near the high of $94.52, our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" has continuously triggered top warning signals (yellow-white dots + green dots); simultaneously, the "Momentum Quantitative Model" has entered a top divergence state. Therefore, the current price has entered a deeply overbought zone, with limited upside potential. Avoid chasing price increases and remain cautious of the risk of a pullback at this elevated level.

3. Analysis of Price Movement After the End of an Uptrend

After the completion of the upward leg (16-17), the market may enter a high-range consolidation phase. If the price effectively breaks below the key support near $90 during the pullback, further downside could target support near $85, and potentially even revisit support near $77.

1. HYPE Weekly Price Movement Forecast

①. Key resistance level:

• First resistance level: around $100

②. Key Support Level:

• First support level: around $90;

• Second support level: $84–$85 range;

• Third support level: $76–$77 range;

③. This Week’s Key Insight: Focus on the termination point of the rebound phase (16–17) and the potential magnitude of any subsequent correction.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy This Week

Price has stabilized at a key support level; consider a small long position.

If the price rise encounters resistance and begins to decline, consider a small long position when the price adjusts to the aforementioned key support level and shows signs of stabilization, while the quantitative model simultaneously issues a bottom-buying signal.

We strictly followed our operational protocol and executed a short-term (long) trade last week based on trading signals generated by our proprietary "spread trading model" and "momentum quantification model," achieving a total profit of approximately 4.76%.

1. Short-term Trading Record: (See Table 1)

Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Summary: (Leverage * 1x)

Table 1

2. Short-term Trading Review: (See Figure 4)

Position Opening Strategy:

① Prior to and after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the cryptocurrency price fluctuated within the range of $74,950 to $77,346. After the announcement, following a brief market adjustment, the price strongly broke above the upper boundary of the trading range and continued its upward momentum.

② At the same time, the dual signal lines of the Dynamic Energy Quantitative Model formed a golden cross in the bullish zone, and the Spread Trading Model simultaneously issued a bullish signal.

Based on the aforementioned multi-factor resonance, establish a 30% long position at $77,600.

Closing Strategy:

① The price rose to around $82,850 and showed signs of stagnation, with the K-line forming a "top divergence" pattern;

② The "Spread Trading Model" continuously issued top warning signals (yellow and white dots + green dots), followed by the signal band (blue) crossing below the horizon (green), creating a top resonance with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Based on the combined top-side resonance signals, closed out the entire position at $81,294.

Summary: This transaction resulted in a profit of approximately 4.76%.

3. Short-Term Trading Diagram

Figure 4: BTC 60-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Six, Special Notice

1. When opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss level to the entry price (break-even point) to secure your principal.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

4. Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit in the coin price, the stop-loss level will move up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are constantly changing; all market analyses and trading strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All viewpoints, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are based solely on personal technical analysis and are intended only for personal trading journal use—they do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. Market risks exist; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based on this information.