BTC Approaches $83,000 Ahead of Jackson Hole as Fed Policy Takes Center Stage

Hu 火星财经 reports that on August 28, QCP Capital released its latest market analysis: BTC has remained near $80,000 ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Market focus is not only on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s policy stance, but also on how the Fed balances persistent inflation pressures with financial conditions—particularly amid new pressures on the long-term U.S. Treasury yield curve. QCP noted that the U.S. Treasury previously announced it would expand its liquidity-supporting repurchase operations for 10- to 30-year Treasuries, increasing the per-operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. Following the announcement, long-term Treasury yields briefly declined, the dollar weakened, and both gold and BTC rose in tandem. However, the Treasury emphasized that this initiative aims to improve liquidity in the long-term nominal bond market, not to directly target yield levels. Inflation remains a key constraint for the Fed. Data shows that U.S. headline PCE increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year in July; core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and held steady at 3.3% year-over-year. QCP stated that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, leaving uncertainty around the September policy decision. Risk assets continue to be supported by the AI investment cycle. NVIDIA’s latest earnings report showed quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, with data center revenue reaching $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. The company forecasts next-quarter revenue of approximately $108 billion, exceeding prior market expectations. NVIDIA’s stock subsequently rose about 8.7%, driving broader tech sector strength. In the crypto market, BTC has risen from around $63,500 last week to approximately $80,000, briefly surpassing $81,000. U.S. spot BTC ETFs have recorded consecutive daily net inflows for eight trading days, accumulating approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows, providing spot demand support for this rally. Notably, this rally has not been accompanied by a rapid increase in leverage: BTC futures open interest has declined from around 646,000 BTC in mid-August to approximately 588,000 BTC, and funding rates remain low. QCP believes this indicates the rally is primarily driven by short covering and spot buying, rather than aggressive leveraged long positioning. BTC is currently approaching the $81,000–$86,000 range, with $83,300 being a key level of market focus. QCP emphasized that the critical question is not merely whether BTC can break through this zone, but whether subsequent gains will continue to be fueled by spot demand or shift toward leverage-driven momentum. QCP noted that Powell will deliver opening remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium; markets will closely monitor how he frames inflation targets, financial conditions, and the impact of long-term interest rate movements on the monetary policy framework.