Odaily Planet Daily report: Brent crude was trading at $101.09 Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day—the first time in six weeks it has surpassed $100; West Texas Intermediate was at $96.27. Saudi officials said Houthi militants attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, injuring 73 people.
On the same day, U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian tankers, following an attack on three others on Saturday, in response to an Iranian ballistic missile strike on a U.S. warship. The crude oil market repriced following the escalation of these events.
In the Polymarket market regarding whether crude oil will first reach $120 or drop to $55, the probability of reaching $120 is 56.5%, up 15.1 percentage points since early September; trading volume in this market has reached $12.7 million since March. Polymarket data shows that the probability of WTI reaching $100 this month is 59%, up 9 percentage points, and the probability of reaching $105 is 30%, up 25 percentage points.
On Polymarket, the probability of WTI falling to $85 this month has dropped to 39%, a 33-percentage-point decline from the previous value, with all probabilities below $85 remaining under 10%; the probability at $55 is 1%. U.S. diesel prices rose to $5.94 per gallon on Wednesday, surpassing last week’s high, while the average gasoline price stood at $4.22. (Decrypt)