BofA Survey: Long Global Semiconductors Becomes One of the Most Crowded Trades

According to Huoxing Finance, on July 17, the Bank of America July Global Fund Manager Survey revealed conflicting investor sentiment toward AI semiconductor trades: while most investors have not yet bet on the end of the cycle, an increasing number believe the trade has become overcrowded. The survey showed that 82% of responding portfolio managers identified "long global semiconductors" as the most crowded trade globally, setting a new record. Meanwhile, technology stock allocations declined from a net 26% overweight to a net 18% overweight, indicating that investors are reducing some long positions but have not fully shifted to shorting. The survey also found that 61% of investors do not expect hyperscalers to announce capital expenditure cuts this year. The BofA survey further noted that the AI bubble has emerged as one of the largest tail risks, with its selection rate rising from 28% in June to 45% in July. However, only a portion of investors believe AI stocks are already in a bubble; more still view them as being in a "boom phase"—where momentum continues to attract capital inflows, but positioning and valuation risks are rising. The survey was conducted between July 2 and July 9 and covered 210 portfolio managers overseeing approximately $555 billion in assets.