BlockBeats news: Amid recent volatility in the bond market, investors are awaiting two key U.S. data releases that could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions: the August non-farm payrolls report, due this Friday, and the August CPI data, to be released on September 11.
However, from Bank of America’s perspective, these two data points carry different weights in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on September 15–16. The bank views the non-farm payrolls report as more of an “appetizer,” with CPI remaining the “main course” that will ultimately determine whether the Fed raises rates.
Bank of America analysts said on Wednesday: "The non-farm payrolls report is unlikely to be the decisive factor for a September rate hike. A significantly weak report could lower the probability of a hike, but CPI remains the key data determining whether the Fed follows through with an increase. We maintain our view that a September rate hike is likely." Unless Friday’s non-farm payrolls data shows a clear downward surprise, the employment report is unlikely to be the final deciding factor in the September FOMC debate. The bank particularly emphasized that inflation remains the Fed’s primary concern at this time.