Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone renewed a stark forecast. He said Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000 if US stocks fall 20%.
Analysts have pushed back sharply, pointing to on-chain data and recent price action.
What McGlone Is Forecasting Now
In a post on October 16, McGlone linked the scenario to broader risks. He pointed to Bitcoin’s 2025 peak above $100,000 and gold’s climb past $5,000. He also cited tighter policy and rising bond yields as signs of a possible endgame for the 2009 rally.
McGlone has repeatedly floated the $10,000 target throughout 2026 and earlier. In August, he suggested Bitcoin’s comfort below $69,000 pointed to a continued move toward that level.
Similar comments appeared in July, June, and September, often linking the downside to mean reversion and to its correlation with stock markets. He first pushed the idea harder in early 2025, when Bitcoin traded near or above $100,000.
His scenario depends on two conditions:
- A 20% drawdown in U.S. stocks.
- Tighter central bank policy.
According to BeInCrypto data, Bitcoin trades near $82,000 as of October 18, 2026. That level sits roughly 35% below its all-time high of about $126,080, set in early October 2025.
A move to $10,000 would therefore imply a much deeper decline.
Are Analysts Convinced by the Bitcoin $10,000 Call?
Critics have pushed back hard. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju pointed out that spot ETFs have absorbed $58 billion. He added that treasury companies hold 1.3 million BTC.
Their argument centers on whether institutional demand can absorb heavy selling.
Ju argued that even if that capital exited, on-chain cost basis still points to a floor near $30,000.
A drop to $10,000 would imply an MVRV ratio of 0.2, well below the worst historical bottom of 0.6. Such a move would also require long-term holders who have survived multiple 75% crashes to panic-sell.
Technical analysts offered a more constructive view. Trader Killa noted that Bitcoin often rallies over weekends and reverses on Mondays.
Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe called the chart “not bad at all.” He believes the next move is more likely to break upward than downward.
McGlone’s repeated warnings keep the debate active. Some traders dismiss them as outdated macro framing, while others see them as a reminder of Bitcoin’s volatility.
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