Bitunix Analyst: Market Enters 'Risk Mispricing' Phase Amid Job Slowdown, Energy Contraction, and Geopolitical Escalation

Huo Xing Finance reports that on April 1, the market faced a triple shock: weakening employment, renewed energy contraction, and expanding warfare. The decline in U.S. job openings, coupled with gasoline prices rising to $4 and OPEC output falling to its lowest level since the pandemic peak, signals a passive tightening of energy supply—meaning inflationary pressures remain unresolved, and policy paths have once again become uncertain. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett continues to accumulate cash, and the CFTC has intensified oversight of energy and information manipulation, reflecting mainstream capital’s efforts to reduce risk exposure and remain wary of market pricing distortions. On the geopolitical front, a qualitative shift has occurred. Iran has not withdrawn but expanded its targets beyond traditional energy and military infrastructure to include U.S. technology and data infrastructure, explicitly naming multiple Silicon Valley and defense companies’ operational hubs in the Middle East. This signifies that warfare has escalated from a threat to “energy supply chains” to a systemic risk targeting “digital and computational infrastructure.” Simultaneously, divisions within NATO have deepened, with core European nations restricting military coordination, while the UAE has shifted toward active military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz—demonstrating that no unified global response framework exists; instead, the world has descended into a chaotic state of multi-party博弈 and outsourced responsibility, further undermining the market’s ability to price risk effectively. Under this structure, capital behavior has become extremely conservative and short-term oriented: on one hand, demand for cash and safe-haven assets has risen; on the other, energy and war risk premiums continue to distort valuations of risk assets, leaving the market without a stable anchor. BTC’s movement is therefore not proactive but a passive reflection of whether capital is willing to absorb risk. Currently, a clear liquidity buildup has formed in the 69,000–70,100 range, but price pressure at 68,000 indicates insufficient momentum to push higher; meanwhile, 65,500 has become the short-term risk test zone—if macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions escalate further, this level may turn into a liquidity release point. Overall, the market has shifted from “event-driven” to “structural distortion”: weakening employment has failed to generate expectations of easing; ongoing energy contraction continues to push up hidden inflation; and warfare has expanded from physical supply chains to digital infrastructure. Under this交织 of multiple uncertainties, any price movement is fundamentally the result of liquidity reallocation—not the establishment of a new trend.