I. Macroeconomics and Traditional Financial Markets
1. AI Narrative Strengthens: Anthropic Files Secretly, Alphabet Increases Investment, Tech Stocks Continue to Hit New Highs
This week, the three major U.S. stock indices continued their upward momentum, maintaining a strong trend. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.13%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.81%. Since April, the S&P 500 has risen approximately 16% and has posted nine consecutive weeks of gains, marking its longest winning streak since 2023. AI remains the primary driver, with the semiconductor and memory sectors continuing to lead the gains, as the narrative of an "arms race" in AI infrastructure continues to receive positive feedback from capital markets.
The most iconic event this week was Anthropic’s confidential submission of an S-1 filing to the SEC on June 1, targeting a valuation of approximately $965 billion and potentially raising up to $75 billion in its IPO—if successful, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history. Meanwhile, Alphabet announced a new $80 billion AI infrastructure funding initiative, with Berkshire Hathaway participating with $10 billion. These developments further reinforce market expectations for the long-term expansion potential of AI infrastructure. However, the potential liquidity draw from Anthropic’s IPO is beginning to attract market attention. Although the company’s annualized revenue has surpassed $47 billion, it remains in a high-growth phase, with its current valuation fundamentally dependent on deep discounting of future AI application-layer earnings. If post-IPO market valuation falls short of expectations—or if it coincides with SpaceX’s public market debut—the downward pressure on AI tech stocks is likely to intensify.
2. Geopolitics: U.S.-Israel military actions intensify, while negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain possible, putting renewed pressure on energy prices.
This week, geopolitical developments have diverged. On one hand, Trump indicated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are progressing smoothly, with ongoing discussions on extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a temporary narrowing of market expectations for a full-scale conflict in the Middle East. On the other hand, Israel announced an expansion of its ground operations in Lebanon, and U.S.-Israel joint military actions have triggered renewed regional tensions, pushing Brent crude prices up by approximately 1.3% back to around $93 per barrel. Volatility in energy markets reflects the current macroeconomic pricing contradiction: the AI-driven surge in tech investment has reduced concerns about recession, yet unstable energy supplies, persistent core inflation, and the U.S. first-quarter GDP revision downward to an annualized 2.5% continue to limit the Fed’s room for rate cuts. Copper prices have also risen further amid impending U.S. tariff reviews, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both raising their full-year price forecasts.
3. Fed’s New Framework and Interest Rate Expectations: Warsh Officially Takes Office as June FOMC Window Opens
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in on May 22, and the market views the FOMC meeting on June 17 under his leadership as a key node for macro pricing in the second half of the year. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the market assigns a 99.4% probability to maintaining the current interest rate range in June and a 93.0% probability for July, indicating extremely limited expectations for near-term rate cuts. Recent U.S. Treasury yields have remained elevated, and the actual macro financial environment effectively amounts to a de facto rate hike of approximately 75 basis points, exerting implicit downward pressure on risk asset valuations. Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index declined to 98.942, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.437%, and gold closed at $4,538, reflecting market pricing of both “prolonged high rates” and “rising risk-off demand.” This week’s May Non-Farm Payrolls data will serve as a critical variable in validating the Fed’s subsequent policy trajectory.
Additionally, the yen has continued to weaken, falling 1.7% in May alone and nearing the key 160 level. Over the past month, Japan’s Ministry of Finance has intervened with approximately $7.36 billion, yet leveraged funds’ bearish bets on the yen have risen to their highest level since July 2024. If the Bank of Japan exceeds expectations with an interest rate hike at its June 16 meeting, the unwinding of global carry trades could marginally tighten liquidity, potentially pressuring both tech stocks and crypto assets.
II. Cryptocurrency Market
1. Market Overview: BTC fell approximately 6% for the week, with ETF funds recording a record-breaking consecutive net outflow.
This week, the crypto market continued its correction, sharply diverging from the new highs in U.S. equities. BTC opened the week at approximately $77,267 and declined to around $72,675 by June 1, posting a weekly drop of about 6%; ETH fell同步 by approximately 4.5%, with the ETH/BTC ratio remaining largely stable, indicating similar downward pressure on both assets rather than ETH weakening independently. ETF funding pressure was particularly pronounced. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest consecutive net outflow period since their January 2024 launch, with nine consecutive days of net outflows totaling approximately $2.8 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT posted its second-largest single-day net outflow since listing, at about $528 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs also experienced 13 consecutive days of net outflows, accumulating approximately $694 million. The Market Fear & Greed Index dropped further from last week’s 39 to 29, entering the "fear" zone.
On the derivatives front, BTC open interest has declined in tandem with the price drop, while Deribit options skew has risen again to around 16%, with put option premiums nearing阶段性 extreme levels, indicating a clear surge in hedging demand. Over the past seven days, the total market cap of stablecoins has net decreased by approximately $2.758 billion, reflecting continued weakness in on-chain spot buying power. Overall, the crypto market lacks independent inflows of new capital and remains pressured by institutional funds being redirected toward AI and technology assets.
2. RWA and On-Chain U.S. Stocks: DTCC Integration with Stellar
On May 27, DTC, a subsidiary of DTCC, announced plans to integrate its tokenized assets services with the Stellar public blockchain, with an expected launch in the first half of 2027. The integration will cover tokenized issuance of blue-chip stocks, ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries, along with corporate actions processing and cross-chain interoperability. DTCC processes approximately $47 trillion in securities transactions annually; its partnership with Stellar signifies that tokenized equities are now being incorporated into the core U.S. securities settlement infrastructure, rather than remaining confined to on-chain platform-specific issuance layers. In response, XLM surged over 30% on the day, with 24-hour trading volume increasing more than ninefold.
3. Long-term perspective: MicroStrategy pauses Bitcoin purchases; Anthropic IPO may become a liquidity turning point
This week, MicroStrategy’s activities are worth noting. Between May 26 and 31, the company sold a small amount of 32 BTC to pay dividends on preferred shares, while suspending its at-the-market (ATM) offering mechanism used to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases. Its current holdings stand at approximately 843,700 BTC. The company has shifted its strategy toward debt management, planning to prioritize repurchasing approximately $1.5 billion in zero-coupon convertible notes due in 2029, with Bitcoin acquisitions temporarily on hold. As one of the key incremental buyers in the crypto market over the past two years, MicroStrategy’s slowed pace signals reduced short-term support.
From a broader perspective, Anthropic officially filed its S-1 on June 1, and SpaceX is also set to advance a large-scale IPO, with their combined potential fundraising possibly exceeding $100 billion. Historically, mega-IPOs tend to create short-term liquidity suction in secondary markets, placing downward pressure on high-volatility risk assets such as AI tech stocks and crypto assets. Overall, the primary macro headwind currently facing crypto stems from the ongoing strengthening of the AI landscape. Amid the impending public market entries of high-valued tech assets like Anthropic and SpaceX, the window for crypto to outperform independently remains limited. Should the AI bubble undergo a阶段性 correction in the future, BTC may experience a significant accompanying adjustment—but this period could also serve as a potential catalyst for forming the bottom of a new crypto cycle.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries high risk; please thoroughly assess your risk tolerance before trading and strictly implement risk management measures.