Citing data from Santiment Intelligence, popular analyst Ali Martinez showed a chart indicating that Bitcoin whale holdings have remained almost completely unchanged at roughly 5.23 million units over the past week.
Perhaps the most evident reason for this is what comes in the next ten days or so, as BTC, alongside all financial markets, braces for a major impact.
10 Days of Chaos
The analyst noted that the lack of accumulation or distribution from whales suggests these large market participants are staying on the sidelines waiting for two particularly important events coming in the next week or so – the US inflation report and the subsequent Federal Reserve meeting.
The inflation data is split: the first batch, the August Producer Price Index (PPI), arrives today, while the considerably more important Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out a day later. Inflation has already become a major talking point after the stronger-than-expected US employment report substantially increased expectations for a new Fed rate hike.
Current odds show a 60% probability of a September rate uptick, even though a Reuters poll found that most economists still expect the central bank to remain on hold. Consequently, Friday’s CPI Reading could play a major role in breaking that disagreement.
Although these two macro events will indeed have some impact on the digital asset market, there are others. The crypto-specific catalyst arrives on September 15, when the Senate is scheduled to hold its procedural vote on advancing the CLARITY Act. Previous progress or delays have typically influenced the market.
A day later comes the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision about its rates, accompanied by Kevin Warsh’s press conference and updated economic projections. Next week will conclude with the Bank of Japan’s announcements about its own rates, with another hike potentially adding pressure to global bond and currency markets.
BTC Below $80K
Whales’ hesitation mirrors BTC’s broader price action as the asset has remained sideways between $77,500 and $80,000 for roughly a week. Each breakout attempt has been halted in its tracks at the upper boundary, while the lower one has provided the necessary support during the subsequent pullbacks.
However, this market uncertainty will likely change in the next just over a week. With PPI, CPI, CLARITY Act voting, the Fed’s move, and the BOJ’s decision arriving almost back-to-back, bitcoin is expected to break out of its consolidation phase, which has continued for weeks after the mid-August pullback.
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