Bitcoin’s on-chain and ETF data point to renewed buying pressure among large players, offering a cushion against disappointment over the CLARITY Act’s stalled progress.
Blockchain data tracked by Santiment shows that whales and sharks, or wallets holding 10 BTC to 10,000 BTC, have accumulated over 20,000 BTC, worth $1.2 billion at the ongoing market price, since July 29. The accumulation has happened in a narrow price range below $65,000 where the market has been trading choppily lately.
“With the pattern of key stakeholders accumulating and small holders dumping, the probability of $70K+ BTC becomes more and more probable compared to the likelihood of sub-$60K,” Santiment said on X.
These diverging trends, the firm explained, are tied to the Coldcard hardware wallet hack that began on July 30 and has since seen the hacker walk away with $120 million in bitcoin. The firm said that uncertainty related to the CLARITY Act and the stagnant price action are also a catalyst for micro holders’ apathy.
The ETF flows also point to a tentative recovery in institutional demand.
The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have pulled in $754.69 million in investor funds this week, according to data source SoSoValue. That puts these funds on track for their best week since April.
“The clearest shift has come in institutional flows,” Liya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo, said, explaining the ETF inflows.
“Spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in more than half a billion dollars so far in August, with inflows building through the week and Wednesday alone contributing over $240 million — a sharp reversal from June, when the funds recorded their worst month on record,” Kalchev added.
Note that despite the on-chain and ETF accumulation, BTC’s spot price has not yet been able to chalk out a meaningful rally. That, according to Kalchev, is a telltale sign of the kind of buyer stepping into the market right now.
“That the reversal has not yet lifted price meaningfully is itself informative: some desks argue the marginal buyer looks more tactical than convicted, and that a genuine recovery narrative likely needs a decisive close above $65,000 to take hold,” Kalchev explained.
BTC’s price chart patterns point to a potential for a notable price rally. At the same time, the fact that the U.S. Senate is unlikely to vote on the Clarity Act this month presents a headwind. The Clarity Act is widely seen as the one unlocking a massive institutional bid for the cryptocurrencies.