Huo Xing Finance reports that Bitcoin’s recent volatility has nearly disappeared, but market risks have not been resolved. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have not experienced outflows, with cumulative net inflows of approximately $754 million. However, Bitcoin’s price remains around $64,700, while options markets are heavily positioning for downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000. Market signals are diverging: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs is rebounding; on the other, derivatives traders are preparing for a potential pullback ahead of the release of the latest U.S. employment data. Nevertheless, overall positioning remains bullish: Bitcoin call options account for approximately 60.7% of total open interest, indicating investors’ long-term sentiment remains positive, even as near-term trading focuses on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection remains low. Deribit’s DVOL index, which reflects the expected 30-day volatility of Bitcoin, is currently around 35—down significantly from a high of 90 earlier this year—suggesting the market views large price swings in the near term as unlikely. However, U.S. macroeconomic data could disrupt this equilibrium. Markets expect U.S. non-farm payroll growth of approximately 97,500 in July, higher than June’s 57,000, with unemployment projected to remain at 4.2%. If employment data exceeds expectations, it could push Treasury yields higher and reinforce expectations of Fed rate hikes; if data weakens, yields may decline but could also intensify concerns over slowing economic growth. Currently, the Bitcoin market is characterized by “spot support from ETF inflows and options hedging against downside risk.” Even in this low-volatility environment, potential risks remain. In conditions of low market participation and insufficient liquidity, even minor shifts in supply or demand could trigger sharp price movements.
Bitcoin volatility hits yearly low as options market braces for pullback
MarsBitShare
Summary
Bitcoin volatility has reached a one-year low, but the options market remains cautious of a potential market pullback. Spot Bitcoin ETFs show no outflows, with a net inflow of approximately $754 million. Bitcoin is trading near $64,700, while the options market is focused on downside protection at $62,000 and $63,000. Call options account for 60.7% of open contracts, indicating a bullish sentiment. The options market is hedging against short-term risks ahead of U.S. jobs data. Deribit’s DVOL index stands at 35, down from 90, reflecting low volatility expectations. A strong jobs report could push yields higher and trigger a market pullback.
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