Bitcoin volatility reaches long-term support level; analysts warn of hidden risks

ChainCatcher report: Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has retreated to the long-term support level of 36%, while the price remains range-bound below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, noted that low-volatility environments suppress trading costs, encouraging traders to build large directional bets and hedging positions; should the price break through key levels, market makers’ passive hedging activities could amplify price movements and trigger a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. On market sentiment, Paul-Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, observed that demand for put options has significantly cooled, while call options also lack buying interest. Glassnode characterizes this condition as “no money backing upside moves, and no money backing downside moves,” suggesting this often signals an approaching market cycle bottom. The divergence between Dogecoin and Bitcoin further reflects sustained speculative apathy. Howard believes that positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, which could drive institutional ETF inflows, may serve as the next major catalyst; meanwhile, failed negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz and higher-than-expected inflation remain key downside risks.